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Squawk on the Street

Cramer's Morning Take: ADP Jobs Data 7/6/23

Squawk on the Street

CNBC

Business, Investing, News

4.1567 Ratings

🗓️ 6 July 2023

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks talk about their market outlook after the June ADP private payrolls report was more than double the estimates. Become a CNBC Investing Club member to go behind the scenes with Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks as they talk candidly about the market’s biggest headlines. Signup here: cnbc.com/morningtake CNBC Investing Club Disclaimer

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm Jim Kramer and you're about to hear a sample taken directly from today's

0:06.5

CBC Investing Club morning meeting.

0:09.8

The market is very sloppy as we predicted.

0:12.6

We've been saying it's going to go lower.

0:14.0

It's one of the reasons why we sold some products from gamble, try to get up to 10%

0:17.0

cash.

0:18.0

What's happening is that the numbers are not good. They're unbelievably good. Starting with

0:24.3

ADP employment, Jeff, $497,000 higher. People expecting $225,000. Yeah, more than double

0:32.0

expectations sets the stage for the jobs report tomorrow. So we'll see what happens there. But

0:37.2

in reaction to that jobs report, you have yield spiking. You have the jobs report tomorrow. So we'll see what happens there. But in reaction to that

0:38.7

jobs report, you have yield spiking. You have the 10 year above 4%, the two year above 5%. You got

0:46.3

odds of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next July meeting, all but a certainty. So we're

0:52.9

seeing some pressure in the markets. We're also coming off a

0:55.5

seasonally strong period right into that July 4,000. Right. We had a lot of money come in,

0:59.2

which was ill-fated. And what people have to realize is people do get things wrong. And one of the

1:05.0

things that they've gotten wrong is the idea that the long bond is worth something at a 4% yield. I don't think it is. Right. And higher rates,

1:14.0

well, how about a 5%? Right. Because a 5% yield, that creates a lot of competition for investment

1:19.8

dollars. For excess cash. Right. Higher rates, creates more competition against the bond

1:25.0

proxies like utility, staples. Yeah, I mean, do you want own American electric power? No, you want this. Right. An American electric power, utility. People like it for the dividend. But if you can get a higher yield on a risk-free rate, why not take it? Also spells trouble for real estate, right? Because they have to take on debt to finance a lot of their growth.

1:49.0

Higher rates also compress PE multiples, which is really what's happening in the market today. Well, you just describe the ideal scenario of why you don't want to earn any of the regional banks.

1:52.8

They fit a lot of that, and the regional banks are deadly here.

1:57.1

A lot of number of cuts in the regional banks. Only First Horizon survived. A lot of these

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