Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Wednesday, December 31st, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn.

Merry new year!

Our top story so far. With libations already flowing around the globe to ring in the new year,

it's a good time to ask what 2026 holds for craft beer. The industry is still in the shakeout

phase that began in 2023, with volumes falling and brewery closures outpacing openings for a third

straight year. Notable closures in 2025 include rogue ails and spirits, Iron Hill Brewery, Cinnitus Brewing in

Colorado, and 21st Amendment brewery in California. Analyst cite a mix of pressures, high commodity

prices and labor costs, slowing taproom traffic in some markets, more competition from other

alcohol formats and zero alcohol beer, and broader cost and regulatory

headwinds. Many drinkers aren't abandoning beer, but they're drinking it less often and shifting

to other options. Matt Gossioch, staff economist at the Brewers Association, says if the

craft beer industry is a ship, it's no longer in the safety of a harbor. Changing of consumer

habits, retailer rationalization,

inflation and tariffs, and record competition have made 2025 a choppy year. But he notes

brewers are adapting by pivoting offerings and even business models. Looking into 2026, the

outlook is for another small volume decline, continued closures, and consolidation, but gradual

stabilization as weaker players exit and stronger taproom-centric breweries adjust their product

mix to new tastes. More M&A is also expected as larger players make strategic moves.

The Brewers' associations, as many headwinds, won't vanish next year, but there are reasons

for cautious optimism. Falling interest rates, potential clarity from the Supreme Court

on tariff legality, and surveys showing consumers plan to socialize more. All potential positives

...