Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's

market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis.

Hello, today is Sunday, December 8th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. The pendulum of the Fed's

dual mandate swings back to inflation this

week. The November Consumer Price Index arrives Wednesday just a week before the last

FOMC beating of 2024. Last week's November jobs report buttressed the market's belief

that Fed Chief J. Powell & Company can cut one more time before the year is out. With a rise in payrolls

above expectations, but below

$250,000, odds of a quarter point December cut jumped to 86%. Rick Ryder, CIO of global fixed

income at BlackRock, says, overall, with labor markets still holding up, and inflation broadly

moderating from cycle highs, although perhaps remaining near recent levels for the time being,

the Fed should

be in a position to move forward on the December rate cut, but the CPI report now becomes another

significant milestone in the policy adjustment calculus. The consensus is that the headline

CPI rose 0.3% last month, with the annual rate edging up to 2.7% from 2.6%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is also seen up

0.3%, with the annual rate holding at 3.3%. Wells Fargo economists say, the stubborn picture of

inflation that has emerged in the past few months is unlikely to be altered by the November

CPI report. But while inflation has proved stubborn in the past few months, it is not as if there have been no signs of progress. They added, the annual change in shelter inflation has slowed to 5.1% from 6.9% this time last year. With the November report, it should drop below 5% for the first time in 2.5 years. Meantime, after bubbling up over the winter,

the 12-month change in the CPI Super Corps is back on the down swing. That said, the final leg of

inflation's journey back to the Fed's target is looking tougher and tougher. New headwinds to

disinflation have emerged, including the potential for higher tariffs and lower tax rates, which

we've incorporated into our forecast.

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