COVID-19 Impact on Future of Emerging Markets in Global Economy with Ronald Leven

Finding Genius Podcast

Richard Jacobs

Medicine, Health & Fitness

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 4 September 2020

⏱️ 27 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In evaluating COVID-19 and the financial crisis, Ronald Leven speaks both to the unprecedented nature that make predictions regarding world finances difficult to the economic principles that help us parse out what we do know.

He addresses

How "zombie businesses" are a concern and why the failure-and-launch dynamic powers the importance of emerging markets,
Why one of his biggest concerns regarding our economics is a second wave of unemployment, and
What are his thoughts on inflation possibilities and how to assess the stock market data.

Ronald Leven is the W.R. Huff Professor of the Practice in the Department of Economics at Duke University and author of the monthly Market Voice newsletter. Before coming to Duke, he worked as an international economist with the New York Federal Reserve and with a variety of financial intuitions before spending several years with Thompson Reuters.

In this podcast, he speaks to the U.S. economy as well as international markets and how emerging economies might look in the coming years.

He emphasizes his concern that we will see a second wave of layoffs. Furthermore, he's worried that this layoff round will not be met with much government support and fears the potential for an increase in our homeless population.

In addition, he discusses the effects of stimulus efforts and possibilities of inflation. In fact, he feels this is the first time in 30 years that we have a real risk of inflation because of this mismatch of artificial demand levels with supply constraints. He explains why this is a problem in more detail and gives his thoughts on how the Federal Reserve might respond regarding interest rates.

He also addresses how our economy may suffer for a while from the "zombie company" effect, which means that companies which shouldn't be able to survive are able to because of stimulus efforts. Meanwhile these companies take resources, such as bank loans, but really aren't a contributing force.

He explains how this makes for a weaker economy with less force and vigor. He also addresses how he evaluates the stock market numbers, what real estate seems to be doing, and what long-term impacts may exist in planning based on preparing for future COVID-like emergencies.

You can access his newsletter Market Voice through his LinkedIn sight after requesting access.

Available on Apple Podcasts: apple.co/2Os0myK

Transcript

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0:00.0	Forget frequently asked questions common sense common knowledge or Google how about advice from a real genius
0:06.8	95% of people in any profession are good enough to be qualified and licensed 5% go and beyond. They become very good at what they do.
0:15.1	But only 0.1% are real Jesus.
0:18.3	Richard Jacobs has made it his life's mission to find them for you.
0:22.4	He hunts down and interviews geniuses in every field, sleep science, cancer, stem cells,
0:27.2	ketogenic diets, and more.
0:28.8	Here come the geniuses.
0:30.4	This is the Finding Genius Podcast.
0:33.0	That is Richard Jacobs.
0:35.0	Hello, this is Richard Jacobs with the Finding Genius Podcast.
0:41.0	My guest today, he's a professor at Duke University.
0:44.0	His name is Ronald Levin.
0:45.0	We're going to talk about economics, emerging markets and foreign markets.
0:49.0	So Ron, thanks for coming.
0:50.0	How you doing?
0:51.0	Fine.
0:52.0	And thank you for inviting me to this particularly since I've never described myself as a genius so this is a rare opportunity.
1:02.0	Yeah, I wanted to have you and other economists on because I've been puzzling a lot about what's, you know, the current, you know, coronavirus issue is doing to the world market, the domestic market and everything.
1:16.0	So I wanted to hear your thoughts economically and what you think is going to happen over the next six months or a year.
1:22.0	To be totally honest, I think anybody who thinks they have a clue about what's going to happen
1:32.1	over the next two years is delusional.
1:34.3	We're in very unprecedented times they are unprecedented
	...

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