Counting Covid’s impact on GDP
More or Less
BBC
4.6 • 3.7K Ratings
🗓️ 23 January 2021
⏱️ 10 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
GDP figures for the period covering lockdown appear to show that the UK suffered a catastrophic decline, worse than almost any other country. But as Tim Harford finds out, things aren’t quite as bad for the UK as they might seem - though they might be worse for everywhere else. Also, alarming claims have been circulating in the UK about the number of suicides during lockdown. We look at the facts.
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Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Chloe Hadjimatheou
(Robots work on the MINI car production line at the BMW plant in Cowley, Oxford, UK. Credit: Tolga Akmen/ Getty Images)
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Why do some big successful brands go bust? |
| 0:05.0 | Toast is back for a new series, taking a look at the decisions that often left investors burnt. |
| 0:11.0 | I'm Sean Farrington, a BBC business journalist. I'll be hearing about the hype. |
| 0:15.0 | They're going to do the deal that makes them the most money at that point of time. |
| 0:19.0 | And I'm picking what went wrong, talking to owners |
| 0:22.5 | and employees to ask, what can we learn? It was being undercut by similar rivals. It just couldn't |
| 0:29.2 | survive. Toast. Listen first on BBC Sounds. Hello and welcome to more or less on the BBC World |
| 0:37.2 | Service. We're a programme that examines |
| 0:39.6 | and unravels the numbers that underpin the world, and I'm Tim Harford. There's no doubt that |
| 0:45.3 | the pandemic has caused a global economic crisis, as well as a public health crisis, |
| 0:50.7 | but the impact has varied around the world. The most straightforward way to measure an economic hit |
| 0:56.2 | is by looking at GDP, gross domestic product. You can measure GDP by adding up everyone's income, |
| 1:02.6 | or everyone's spending, or the market value of everything that's been produced, and in principle, |
| 1:08.3 | all three methods produce the same number. In a typical recession, GDP falls by |
| 1:14.4 | a percentage point or three, but during the height of the first lockdown, the second quarter of last year, |
| 1:20.7 | GDP dropped by nearly 14% in France, 7% in Denmark, 19% in Spain. Economic catastrophe. But one country's economy seems to have |
| 1:33.4 | performed worse than almost anywhere else. The UK's. In the same period, its GDP fell by about |
| 1:40.9 | 20%. I spoke to Simon Briscoe, director of the data science company, the Data Analysis |
| 1:47.4 | Bureau. Firstly, it can be put down to genuine economic response. Britain has a disproportionately |
| 1:56.5 | large service sector, so arts, cultures, entertaining entertaining sandwiches, pubs, the whole lot, |
| 2:03.6 | went into lockdown so money couldn't be spent. And secondly, there was a particularly large hit |
| 2:10.0 | from the fall in what is called government output, primarily schools and hospitals. |
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