Could the Reform party overtake the Tories?
The News Agents
Global
4.1 • 5.4K Ratings
🗓️ 21 March 2024
⏱️ 36 minutes
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Summary
There's only one poll that counts and that's the actual election and that's not today. We know that, we get it, but the latest numbers from YouGov are worth looking at to see a direction of travel that might be staring us in the face.
Tonight's poll for The Times puts the Conservatives on 19 percent and Reform Party just behind them on 15. Is it conceivable that they overtake today's party of government at the general election?
And what is the demographic that is propping up the newcomer Reformistas?
Later, why is the Rwanda bill being pushed back if there is - according to the PM - a 'migrant emergency'?
And we answer the question on everyone's lips - where is Jon's favourite Amish town - and what's it called..
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The News Agents is brought to you by HSBC UK - https://www.hsbc.co.uk/
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | The Newsagents podcast is brought to you by HSBC UK, opening up a world of opportunity. |
| 0:08.1 | This is a global player original podcast. |
| 0:16.6 | And welcome to British Columbia as you join the CBC's coverage of election 93. I'm Peter Mansbridge. This has been a night unlike any other in Canadian political history. The liberals who've held power almost 64 years this century are going to hold it again. You could count Tory seats on your fingers. This is what the country's map looks like. Red, the |
| 0:39.5 | color of the Liberal Party. Look at those swashes of red. The Tories, the lowest they've ever done |
| 0:46.4 | in popular vote, 17%. You saw what it meant in seats. Three. That was the Canadian federal election |
| 0:52.8 | of 1993. And you heard the prediction there of just three Tory seats remaining. Well, that was wrong. There were only two. |
| 1:02.3 | So they went from 156 seats to just two. It was catastrophic. But we're not doing this to delve into the depths of Canadian |
| 1:12.8 | politics. We're just asking the question, could something similar happen here in this general |
| 1:20.2 | election? Not so far-fetched when you look at the latest polling data which puts reform neck and neck with the Tories. Welcome to the |
| 1:30.3 | newsagents. The Newsagents. It's John. It's Emily. It's Lewis. And this poll, if the |
| 1:42.2 | Tories had an attack of the collie wobbles before, this would have turned them into absolute quivering jelly. |
| 1:50.3 | Because the worst nightmare, that reform comes along and is strong enough to deny the Tories their seats in the red wall and elsewhere, is coming to reality, it seems, |
| 2:02.8 | if this polling data is to be released. |
| 2:05.4 | And we put in all the usual caveats on polls. |
| 2:08.3 | They, you know, the only poll that matters is election day. |
| 2:10.6 | There's a 3% plus or minus margin of error. |
| 2:13.3 | Nevertheless, this will put the fear of God into the Tory party. |
| 2:18.0 | Yeah, and it's a mainstream polling company. |
| 2:20.2 | It's UGELF. |
| 2:20.8 | And I think that is relevant because you will have heard people sort of cross-reference, |
| 2:24.5 | different polls over the last few months. |
| 2:26.5 | I think this is a pretty mainstream company doing polling on a large sample for the Times newspaper. |
... |
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