Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, November 20th, and today we are talking about the Fed Minutes sending Bitcoin to a new low. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Well, friends, the Bitcoin drawdown continues as Fed

Minutes took rate cuts completely off the table. Minutes for the October FOMC meeting were

released on Wednesday and made it clear that a deeply divided Fed is not likely to cut in December.

The minutes underscored the two-sided risks in the economy, with several members pointed to

slowing job numbers and depressed labor demand, as signs the economy

could be heading into a steep downturn. On the other side, many committee members noted that

inflation hasn't shown any signs of returning sustainably to 2%, with tariff shocks and sticky

prices for services still an issue. Mostly, the meeting seemed to demonstrate a two-sided outlook

on the committee itself. The Minutes said that only several participants said further rate cuts would be warranted to move policy closer towards neutral. However, many

argued that rates should remain on hold for the remainder of the year. The Minutes stated,

In discussing the near-term course of monetary policy, participants expressed strongly differing

views about what policy decisions would most likely be appropriate at the committee's December

meeting. Now, none of this is particularly shocking appropriate at the committee's December meeting.

Now, none of this is particularly shocking given how the October meeting played out.

That decision to cut rates featured two dissents, with one member preferring to cut by 50 basis points and another preferring to hold rate steady.

During his press conference, Jerome Powell frequently referred to a deep division on the committee,

saying at the time, there was a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle. Renaissance macro research wrote, The minutes shown what we've known. The hawks are more hawkish than the doves are dovish. To the extent that there's new information, it's simply that the committee is leaning heavily towards a rate pause. By a quick headcount based on public statements, it seems that only governors Miran, Waller, and Bowman are strongly in favor of a cut in December.

Three regional Fed

presidents with a vote in December have expressed a desire to hold rate steady, and the

remaining three voting members, including Powell, seem to be leaning towards a rate pause.

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