Coronavirus Models Aren't "Wrong." That's Not How They Work.

Short Wave

NPR

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4.7 • 6K Ratings

🗓️ 20 April 2020

⏱️ 13 minutes

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Summary

Scientific models of disease don't predict the future. They're just one tool to help us all prepare for it. NPR global health correspondent Nurith Aizenman explains how scientific models of disease are built and how they're used by public health experts. We also look at one influential model forecasting when individual states might begin to reopen.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to shortwave from NPR.
0:05.4	Maddie is a fire here with NPR Global Health Correspondent, Noreet,
0:08.8	Eisenman, Hinery.
0:10.2	Hi, Maddie.
0:11.0	So we're going to start today at the White House.
0:15.0	Thank you very much, everyone.
0:16.2	Back on March 31st, early on a Tuesday evening.
0:20.6	Our country is in the midst of a great national trial.
0:24.7	Right.
0:25.5	Unlike any we have ever.
0:26.5	It feels like months ago, it was actually just a few weeks ago.
0:30.0	President Trump had just extended federal social distancing
0:32.7	guidelines urging people to stay home from work and school
0:36.1	until April 30th.
0:37.9	A number of states had already taken more drastic steps
0:40.1	on their own.
0:41.1	And this press conference was supposed
0:42.9	to be where they explained why.
0:45.2	Why they made that decision to tell us all to stay home.
0:48.6	It had to do with computer simulations
0:51.2	that try and predict what could happen during an outbreak.
0:54.3	They're called models.
	...

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