Comparing countries' coronavirus performance
More or Less
BBC
4.6 • 3.7K Ratings
🗓️ 25 April 2020
⏱️ 9 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Many articles in the media compare countries with one another - who’s faring better or worse in the fight against coronavirus? But is this helpful - or, in fact, fair?
Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander discuss the limitations that we come across when we try to compare the numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths in different countries; population size, density, rates of testing and how connected the country is all play a role.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello and welcome to more or less on the BBC World Service. We are weekly guide to the |
| 0:05.8 | numbers all around us and I'm Tim Halford. |
| 0:09.4 | The favourite pastime around the world now is to compare countries with one another, |
| 0:13.6 | who's fairing better or worse in the fight against coronavirus. But is this actually |
| 0:18.9 | helpful or in fact fair? Ruth Alexander's been thinking about this, hello Ruth. |
| 0:24.2 | Hi Tim, I have been and so have numerous loyal listeners, pat in Cheshire in the northwest |
| 0:30.4 | of England, sums up the mood in the inbox. |
| 0:33.4 | I find the comparison's meaningless as they don't relate to deaths per head of population |
| 0:37.6 | per country. Comparing the UK to Spain, Italy and the USA takes no account of populations. |
| 0:44.6 | So I'll be better or worse than others. |
| 0:46.8 | If you look at how these countries rank, you see that they're all in the top 10 in terms |
| 0:51.4 | of the number of cases and top five along with France in terms of deaths. But the US is |
| 0:58.5 | a way ahead of them all. It has by far the most cases, 770,000 and deaths, more than 41,000. |
| 1:07.9 | And that's seven times more cases in the UK and more than twice as many deaths. |
| 1:12.6 | But the population of the United States is about five times bigger than the UK's and Italy's |
| 1:17.3 | and seven times bigger than Spain's. So adjusting for that and looking at the number |
| 1:21.9 | of deaths for every million people, which seems like it might tell us more about what's |
| 1:24.7 | going on. |
| 1:25.7 | To some degree, it gives you a sense of the magnitude of the problem each country's |
| 1:30.0 | facing, but it doesn't necessarily give meaningful comparisons. When you look at how countries |
| 1:35.1 | rank on deaths per million population, the US slides down the table from top place to |
| 1:41.7 | 12th place. And suddenly, they're in first place, meanwhile, is San Marino, followed |
... |
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