Coffee House Shots: John Curtice – what to expect in 2026
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The Spectator
4.4 • 785 Ratings
🗓️ 3 January 2026
⏱️ 21 minutes
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Summary
James Heale sits down with Sir John Curtice, the doyen of British polling, to take stock of an extraordinary year in UK politics and to look ahead to what 2026 might hold. Curtice explains why the rise of Reform UK during the spring local elections marked a historic turning point – establishing the longest period in polling history where a party outside the traditional Conservative–Labour duopoly has led nationwide and assesses Labour’s continued slide, the unprecedented collapse in support for both major parties, and the growing influence of the Greens under new leadership.
John also explores why Britain has entered a new era of multiparty politics, how cultural divides now rival economic ones, and why neither Labour nor the Conservatives can rely on their old electoral coalitions. He breaks down the challenges facing each party in Scotland, Wales and England ahead of next year’s crucial local and devolved elections, and considers how fragmentation, voter disillusionment and shifting identities could reshape the political landscape. Will 2026 see the definitive end of the two-party consensus?
Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
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Transcript
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| 0:35.4 | Hello, welcome to coffee house shots. I'm James Seale. I'm delighted to be joined today by Sir John Curtis, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathcide. Now, John, when we're looking back over the past 12 months, what do you think were the big moments in terms of polling over the past year? Well, undoubtedly the big moment of all was the spring of this year, and particularly the time of the English County Council |
| 0:57.1 | elections, limited though they were, on the 1st of May, because this is the period from which |
| 1:02.8 | onwards reform have been ahead in the polls. And from the 1st of May, basically running up between |
| 1:09.7 | about 30 and 32 percent on a fairly consistent basis, |
| 1:12.6 | they're not continuously increasing. |
| 1:14.7 | They've just basically maintained that position. |
| 1:17.4 | And that has been enough for them to be ahead. |
| 1:21.3 | In most polls, indeed, will often with a double-digit lead. |
| 1:25.0 | And the reason, in a sense, can give you some idea of the historical |
| 1:28.7 | importance of least, or at least giving an historical judgment on it, is that this does now mean |
| 1:33.9 | that reform have been ahead in the opinion polls for longer than the Liberal SDP Alliance were |
| 1:40.5 | in late 1981, 1982, and to that extent, at least this is now the longest period that a party |
| 1:47.8 | other than Conservative or Labour have been ahead in the polls. And, you know, that's one of them |
| 1:54.8 | anyways in which is uncharted territory. The second way, which in a sense is partly a corollary |
| 2:00.3 | of that. I mean, there's never been a single dramatic moment that's been responsible for Labour's |
| 2:08.7 | decline, but Labor's Declime, which was already evident by the beginning of this year, |
... |
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