Welcome to Coffee House Shots of Spectators' Daily Politics Podcast. Are we going to get a Brexit deal? Boris Johnson has published his proposal, but all now depends on how it's going down in Dublin, where Leo Varadkar seems distinctly unimpressed. I'm Fraser Nelson, and I'm joined by James Forsyth with me here in Westminster,

and I'm delighted to say by Pat Leahy, the political editor of the Irish Times, who's joining us

from Dublin. Pat, in your latest column, you say that Leah Varascair may take Boris Johnson's

deal as the basis of something to go on, but he wouldn't do so until

after the next general election. In other words, the chances of getting a deal this month,

which is our Prime Minister stated aim, are virtually nil. Yeah, I think that's the view

of most people here in Dublin. It's also the predominant view that I pick up

when I speak to people in Brussels. And there's a couple of reasons for that. You know, I can see a

situation whereby Ireland and the EU might be forced to choose between two unpalatable alternatives of no deal on the one hand and the proposals made by Boris Johnson this week, which would entail the EU and Ireland, believe at least, some sort of border checks. And that's a view that

most experts seem to hold, that while the border checks may not be as intrusive as checkpoints

and checks on the border and so forth, that it wouldn't require some sort of checks, some sort of

border infrastructure. But you can see where they might possibly choose some sort of border infrastructure. But you can see where they might possibly choose some

sort of an agreement that did entail checks in preference to a no deal. But they won't choose it

until they have to. And as of now, I think they believe that the Ben Act will force Boris Johnson either to

get somebody else to seek an extension or to seek an extension himself. And by far the most likely

outcome of the coming weeks, they believe as far as I can see from conversations with people

here and in Brussels,

is that an extension is the most likely outcome. That will probably, it seems to me, although

you guys might be better judges of this, but that would likely to be followed by a general

election in which, seems to me anyway, Boris Johnson would have a good chance of winning.

And I think it's at that point then that these proposals are more likely to become the basis

for a serious negotiation. Now, I know there will be talks between the UK and the EU. I know

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