Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots, The Spectator's Daily Politics Podcast. I'm Isabel Hardman

and I'm joined by Katie Balls and James Forsyth. While the big talk in Westminster today is whether

or not Graham Brady has received 48 letters from Tory MPs calling for a vote of no confidence

in Theresa May.

The chairman of the 1922 Committee has told friends that he is not visiting Downing Street

today, which is somewhat ominous, James.

Do you think he might visit tomorrow or on Thursday?

I think the Chairman 1922 Committee has regular audiences for the Prime Minister

and she would be well advised in the current circumstances to be seeing him quite often.

But I am sceptical of the idea that we're extremely close to 48 letters.

I think this, I think, though, one of the interesting things about this at the moment is

that the biggest danger for her comes from cock up, not conspiracy.

There is no determined ERG effort to get everyone to send their letters in.

You know, Jacob Rees-Mogg's and Steve Baker, who are the two, can agree with organizers,

still think that this isn't the right approach.

Now, as time goes on, I don't rule out that changing.

And I think one of the other things that has changed is the numbers that would vote against

through his men and no confidence vote have probably increased because there is kind of despair

is spread beyond the kind of hard Brexiteers, to a more general kind of what's going on here.

And I think one thing that if the 48 letters does happen,

which I still think is relatively unlikely, I think one thing Theresa May would need to do would be

to make clear that she wouldn't then attempt to use the entire extra year that she's been given.

...