The U.S. economic outlook is looking more and more sunny.

From marketplace in Los Angeles, I'm Novosafo in for David Bruncaccio.

Fast rising interest rates and high inflation were supposed to cause an economic hurricane.

Now Goldman Sachs is the latest bank to predict less of a chance of even a thunderstorm over

the next year.

The investment bank lowered its probability of recession in the U.S. to 15% from an earlier

20%.

Julia Coronado joins me now.

She's founder and president of macro policy perspectives.

Good morning, Julia.

Good morning.

So this latest forecast, no thunderstorms, but maybe still some clouds, right?

What do you make of this latest analyst report that perhaps we're going to be okay?

So I certainly have been in the soft landing camp and there's a lot of data that continue

to support that solid job gains, consumer spending is tracking just fine.

On the other hand, you know, I don't think we can just sound a victory bell here.

The labor market is cooling pretty rapidly, the unemployment rate edged up, and global

growth is really struggling.

So we have yet to feel the full impact of that tightening.

And I think there's still our reasons for caution, even though it's good news that the

economy is in resilient.

Is China's economy kind of an unknown factor here?

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