Welcome to you overtime. I'm Mike Santoli in for Scott Wopner today. You just heard the

vowels but we are just getting started and we kick things off with our talk of the

tape, the big about face. Stock staging a stunning turnaround today this afternoon

the Dower racing a 306 point loss to finish in the green but just off its highs by

the bell our lead-off guest says enjoy the gains while you can the clock is ticking on a recession and the

consumer is going to get caught in the crosshairs.

Let's welcome in Anastasia Amarosa, chief investment strategist at I Capital.

I have a stage.

Great to have you with us.

Good to see, Mike.

So obviously the market has been consumed with this question.

How much of an economic slowdown?

Can the Fed navigate a soft landing clearly

the market has registered some of those fears I mean the utilities have outperformed

consumer discretionary by 20 percentage points here to date is it your case that the market still doesn't

appreciate the potential risk of recession here? Well I think longer term I think

that's absolutely the case. We do not appreciate the longer risk of recession and I say that because when I

look at the pullback that the markets have had, I mean if we extrapolate that

into imply probability of recession is just about 20 percent. But when you look at some of the historical indicators of

recession whether it's a level of consumer confidence which is at a 10 year or

low or you look at the wage growth in how high it's running how hot it's

running right now those indicators are actually flashing much higher probabilities of a recession.

...