Citi's Dirk Willer on How You Know When the Bubble Is Over

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 15 November 2025

⏱️ 44 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

According to Dirk Willer, the Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citigroup, we are definitely in bubble territory. Per his research, the stock market has been in a bubble since May. Unlike many people, whose definitions of bubbles are a bit more vague or a bit more based on sentiment, Dirk's work focuses on precise timing and price indicators that distinguish bubbles from mere booms. Furthermore, he argues that when the bubble first forms, the correct move historically is to buy into it and then just accept that you'll never nail the top perfectly. On this episode, we talk about his overall approach as well as the signs of when the bubble has come to an end. We also talk about current parallels to the dotcom bubble, why gold has had such a monster year, and the signs from the Treasury market that make the US look increasingly like an emerging market.

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	You're being sold an AI future where you're obsolete or irrelevant.
0:04.0	That vision is wrong.
0:06.0	At Palantir, they're building AI that helps workers and unlocks their full potential.
0:12.0	American workers are our nation's greatest strength.
0:16.0	AI shouldn't eliminate them. It should elevate them.
0:19.0	Palantir is here to tell their stories. From factories
0:23.0	to hospitals, AI is freeing people from drudgery, letting them do what humans do best. Create, solve,
0:31.0	build. Palantir, making Americans irreplaceable. Hi, I'm Zinging. And I'm Simon Jack. And together we host Good Bad Billionaire. The podcast exploring how some of the world's richest people made their fortunes. And we are back with a brand new season of billionaires. Yes, movie megastar Arnold Schwarzenegger. America's richest self-made businesswoman, Diane Hendricks. And co-founder of Snapchat of Snapchat Evan Spiegel to name just a few
0:55.0	And we're asking you to decide if they're good, bad or just another billionaire
0:58.9	Good bad billionaire from the BBC World Service
1:01.4	Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:07.9	Bloomberg Audio Studios
1:09.6	Podcasts Radio News.
1:21.5	Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.
1:27.0	I'm Joe Wisenthal.
1:28.2	And I'm Tracy Allaway.
1:29.3	Tracy, markets getting interesting again.
1:32.0	I love interesting markets.
1:33.6	We do. We always say we're long volatility.
1:36.1	That's right.
1:36.5	Here at the Odd Lots podcast, all financial journalists are long volatility, I guess.
1:41.0	Yes. I mean, you can actually see it in the listener and readership numbers.
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Bloomberg, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Bloomberg and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.