China Surprise: Saudi-Iranian Detente

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

Ark Media

Society, October 7, Hamas, War, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Israel, News Commentary, News, Politics, Elections, Palestine, Dan Senor, Government

4.8 • 2.3K Ratings

🗓️ 13 March 2023

⏱️ 63 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

China just announced that it had brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations, for the first time since they were officially severed in 2016. But this news begs more questions than it answers. To help us understand what it means for Washington, Jerusalem, Beijing, Tehran, and Riyadh, Rich Goldberg joins the podcast. Rich is a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. From 2019-2020, he served as a Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction for the White House National Security Council. He previously served as a national security staffer in the US Senate and US House. He was a founding staff director of the House U.S.-China Working Group and was among the first Americans ever to visit China’s human space launch center. A leader in efforts to expand U.S. missile defense cooperation with Israel, Rich played a key role in U.S. funding for the Iron Dome. Rich is an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve with military experience on the Joint Staff and in Afghanistan.

Transcript

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0:00.0	One of the things the Biden administration would say is, listen, on paper, we really haven't relieved any of the maximum pressure sanctions.
0:06.3	Maximum pressure that we inherited from Trump is technically still in place.
0:10.0	How could the Iranians be able to survive two years of maximum pressure?
0:14.8	And the answer is China.
0:17.6	The Chinese are building huge, huge leverage over the Iranians by ramping up to incredible levels the amount of illicit
0:27.8	oil imports they were taking from the Iranians in a way where it kept them afloat. In recent days China announced that it had broken a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations
0:51.0	for the first time since they were
0:52.8	officially severed in 2016. The formal restoration is scheduled to
0:58.2	occur in two months. Now this is a really big deal, a really big surprise. I want to provide a little bit of history before we bring on our guest to explain the history between Iran and Saudi Arabia and why this news was such a shock to so many capitals around the world.
1:17.0	Keep in mind Saudi Arabia and Iran were in a proxy war with one another throughout the Middle East.
1:22.0	The two countries have been rival
1:24.1	since 1979 following the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The post- 1979 Iranian regime has
1:31.0	repeatedly called for the toppling of the Saudi government
1:34.9	and supported Shiite rebels inside Saudi Arabia.
1:38.0	Shiites make up approximately 20% of Saudi Arabia's population, So if Iran can back some subset of them against the monarchy,
1:47.2	that could pose a real threat. Ties worsened dramatically after the Arab Spring in 2011 when Iran backed Shiite citizens trying to overthrow
1:56.0	the Saudi-backed Bahraini monarchy.
1:58.4	Keep in mind Bahrain is right on Saudi Arabia's border.
2:03.0	Iran also supported a sectarian civil war in Yemen to the south of Saudi Arabia
2:08.0	and sent troops to Syria to support the government of Bashar Assad during Syria's civil war.
2:12.9	So all around Saudi Arabia, the Saudi leadership has felt the pressure of Iran's military
2:17.9	activities and threats.
	...

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