China's Economy: Reasons for Optimism

Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 5 November 2025

⏱️ 18 minutes

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Summary

As the US and China navigate trade tensions, what's the outlook for China's economic growth? Hui Shan, chief China economist in Goldman Sachs Research, discusses with Allison Nathan. This episode was recorded on November 3rd, 2025. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	This year, one of the biggest concerns for investors around the world has been the potential for a renewed trade war between the U.S. and China.
0:13.0	So what's the state of trade negotiations between the two countries and should last week's summit give investors a measure of relief?
0:20.0	I'm Alison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges.
0:26.4	Today I'm speaking with my colleague, Kui Shan, chief China economist in Goldman Sachs research,
0:31.3	to talk about the implications of the recent talks for tariffs, restrictions on exports,
0:35.7	and more broadly, China's economic growth.
0:38.2	Hui, welcome back to exchanges.
0:40.1	Thanks for having me.
0:41.8	So, Hui, China has borne the brunt of U.S. tariffs.
0:44.7	They've definitely been in the crosshairs.
0:46.1	Yet, exports and I would say growth, have been exceptionally resilient.
0:50.3	Why is that?
0:50.8	Are the tariffs just not working?
0:52.8	Good question.
0:53.8	Chinese exports indeed have been very
0:56.3	resilient. After last year, 13% growth in export volume. This year, looking at the data,
1:03.9	Chinese exports volume is on track for another 8% growth. So if you look at the detailed categories, it's not like the Chinese exports
1:14.3	are immune to any kind of tariff impacts. In fact, for categories like toys, footwear, garment,
1:21.1	where it's labor intensive and the margins are relative to thing, when you add tariffs,
1:27.0	you do see large declines
1:28.9	and sometimes double-digit and more than double-digit declines in the exports of these
1:34.3	categories. So to us, the 30% U.S. additional tariffs are having a negative impact on Chinese exports.
	...

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