China’s Economic Downturn, With Zongyuan Zoe Liu

The President’s Inbox

Council on Foreign Relations

Politics, News:politics, News

4.5 • 698 Ratings

🗓️ 15 August 2023

⏱️ 33 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the causes and consequences of China’s faltering economy. Mentioned on the Podcast “China’s Economy Is Slowing. Here’s Why That Matters,” Bloomberg Thomas Hale and Andy Lin, “Chinese Economy Falls Into Deflation as Recovery Stumbles,” Financial Times Zongyuan Zoe Liu, “Zero-COVID Is the Least of Xi's Economic Problems,” Foreign Policy Zongyuan Zoe Liu, “Beijing Needs to Junk Its Economic Playbook,” Foreign Policy Zongyuan Zoe Liu, “China's Pensions System Is Buckling Under an Aging Population,” Foreign Policy Zongyuan Zoe Liu and Benn Steil, “Xi's Plan for China's Economy Is Doomed to Fail,” Foreign Affairs For an episode transcript and show notes, visit us at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/chinas-economic-downturn-zongyuan-zoe-liu

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the President's Inbox, a CFR podcast about the foreign policy challenges facing the United States.
0:09.5	I'm Jim Lindsay, Director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
0:13.0	This week's topic is China's economic downturn.
0:26.0	With me to discuss China's faltering economy is Zoe Liu.
0:31.0	Zoe is the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council.
0:36.8	Her research focuses on international political economy and global financial markets.
0:43.2	She is the author of the book Can Br Bricks De Dollarize the Global Financial System and Sovereign Funds, How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.
0:49.6	She recently co-wrote a piece for Foreign Affairs titled, She's Plan for China's Economy is
0:56.6	doomed to fail. Zoe, thank you for joining me.
1:00.3	Thank you, Jim, for having me.
1:02.5	Now, Zoe, for years we have heard about China's economic miracle.
1:07.4	In roughly 40 years, China went from being an economic afterthought to the world's largest or second largest economy, depending on the measure you prefer.
1:18.3	As recently as this past January, experts expected the Chinese economy to come roaring back after nearly three years of zero COVID policy. But for the last several
1:30.3	months, all I have been seeing is a drumbeat of bad news coming out of China. Let me just cite some
1:36.7	statistics. Manufacturing is contracted for the fourth straight month. Chinese exports in July were
1:43.6	down nearly 15% year over year. The sharpest
1:48.0	contraction since the start of the COVID pandemic back in February 2020. Net foreign direct
1:54.7	investment just hit its lowest level in two decades. So I have to ask you, Zoe, how much trouble is the Chinese economy in?
2:03.9	Jim, in all these headline news numbers are bad news. Even this morning, Financial Times, Bloomberg,
2:11.8	came out news to say China is not just flirting with deflationary pressure, but officially entered into a
2:19.9	deflationary status, both consumer price and producer price done year on year in July.
2:28.1	I would argue that this is perhaps too early to say this is going to be the peak moment of the Chinese economy
	...

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