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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

China’s Congress: an inflection point?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 18 October 2022

⏱️ 25 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which kicked off on Sunday, promises to be one of the most significant events for China in modern history, not only because President Xi Jinping is widely expected to secure an unprecedented third term, but also because it comes amid the country’s slowest pace of growth in decades. So, whether the Congress marks an inflection point for economic policy is Top of Mind. In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Susan Shirk, chair of the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego, David Li, professor at Tsinghua University, and Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs Research’ chief China economist, discuss what to watch for that could presage a policy inflection, what that inflection may look like, and what it could mean for growth. This episode is based on GIR’s Allison Nathan’s latest Top of Mind report.

Transcript

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0:00.0

The 20th National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party that kicked off on Sunday

0:05.6

promises to be one of the most significant events in China's modern history.

0:10.0

That's largely because President Xi Jinping is widely expected to secure a third five-year term

0:16.2

as General Secretary, the top leader of the party, in a break from the long-held convention

0:21.5

that Chinese leaders serve only two terms.

0:24.9

And this unusual extension of Gee's leadership is coming amid the slowest pace of growth

0:29.7

in the economic giant in decades. I'm Allison Nathan and this is exchanges at Goldman Sachs.

0:40.0

On this special episode we're breaking down our most recent top of mine report.

0:44.8

China's economy is facing substantial challenges owing to the country's ongoing zero

0:49.5

COVID policy and significant stresses in its large property sector.

0:54.0

Whether President Xi will use his further consolidation of power at the Congress

0:59.0

to shift policy priorities towards boosting growth

1:02.0

is a critical question for China's

1:04.3

economic outlook. We first speak with UC San Diego Susan Schirk for more context

1:09.3

on the Congress and its significance. I'm sure I'm not the only person of a certain age who hears

1:16.0

20th party Congress and immediately thinks about

1:20.1

de-stallinization, the secret speech that Khrushchev gave in the Soviet Union, in which he

1:28.0

criticized the over-concentration of power that Stalin had held and started de-Stalinization

1:38.8

in the Soviet Union. So that secret speech had tremendous reverberations for communist countries

1:46.9

around the world but this 20th party Congress will not be one of renouncing centralized leadership.

1:55.0

It is really quite the opposite.

1:58.0

It is confirming Shejen-Ping's leadership and his intention to remain in power as long as he can.

...

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