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Hello and welcome to Coffee How Shots, the spectator's daily politics podcast.

I'm Max Geoffrey and I'm joined by Fraser Nelson and Katie Bulls.

Small boat crossings are down 17% in the first three months of this year compared to last.

Fraser, what's caused it?

Well, this is quite impressive news for the government. The Home Office had

predicted that there will be 65,000 people crossing this year as a significant increase in

last year. Instead of the increase, there is a decrease. Now, why might this be? Might it be because

of the weather, etc? Might it be because the French are getting very good at intercepting?

I would guess, and we don't know yet, my guess is that it's due to the lack of Albanians.

It wasn't so long ago that Albanians were making up almost half of those coming across

on small boats. And then last December, Rishi Tanak agreed with the government of Albania to

start deporting them, putting them in planes and they would take off every single week.

Now, the moment that starts happening, you blow a hole in the people's smugglers' business model.

Nobody's going to be paying three grand as they have been doing to cross the channel.

Only if there's a reasonable chance that you'll be back in Albania within like a week.

So, when this happens, you will take away one of the people's smugglers' biggest clients.

For a long time, they were the biggest single client. Now, this is important for two reasons.

One that Rishi Tanak has as one of his five pledges is to stop the small boats.

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