I'm here with Chaim Siegel of Elazar Advisors who runs the Fed trading service here on Seeking Alpha.

I think some listeners probably know me

and you know maybe some subscribers are tuning in,

but they know that I was bearish in 2022 and at the end of 2022 we got bullish on markets and we've been

bullish for most of 2023. I'm bullish for 2023. I do think that there's some chance for a dip in early 2024 based on a couple of

components that need watching.

And I keep my process pretty simple and transparent for everybody.

And I think anybody could just do it themselves, but it's, you know, I've been in the business

for a million years, so it's helpful to hear it from me anyway.

Key measure I'm going to be watching is jobless claims.

People don't put a lot of emphasis on jobless claims, but I do.

And I think it's like the most real time thing

you could get on the overall economy for all the stocks which you know really leads to how the

companies are doing because if if they every the companies are competitive if they want to you

know stay see opportunity they were going to want to hire more people and if they're worried they're and they don't want to lose

earnings from having too many workers, then they cut. So that jobless claims number every week is like a real-time view of where

the economy is heading versus what the feds doing. So if the jobless claims are moving up and the Fed's not doing anything like they're just at least they're not hiking but they're not cutting. Then there's risk building for the market because it means that things are slowing, the Fed's not doing anything about it, they're leaving rates too high, which creates more perceived risk into the future.

But if you see jobless claims holding, which is one way that we got really bullish in the end of 2022,

is we saw everybody's worried about a recession, but jobless claims are holding are coming down many less jobless claims

meaning more people working and so when you have more people working it's like I

don't see a recession GDP is plus and and you don't have a recession with plus GDP numbers and

jobless claims moving down.

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