Hello and welcome to the latest podcast from the Centre for European Reform.

I'm Ian Bond, the CER's deputy director, and I'm delighted to be joined today by Mikola Bielieskov

of the National Institute for Strategic Studies under the Ukrainian President and also a senior analyst at the

Ukrainian charity Come Back Alive.

And by Alessia Jormechuk, the director of the Ukrainian Institute, London.

So welcome to both of you.

Good morning.

We're recording this podcast on the day when Russian and Ukrainian delegations are

supposed to meet in Istanbul for peace negotiations. So there is a slight risk that everything

that we say will be overtaken by the war coming to an end, but somehow I doubt it.

It seems to me that Putin has shown by the level of delegation that he's sent to Turkey,

which is rather low, that he isn't serious about making peace.

He thinks that he can win this war and achieve his aim of removing Ukraine as a sovereign state.

Maybe I should start with you, Mikola, and ask, is Putin right? Can he win this war

on the battlefield? What is the situation of the two armed forces at the moment? Well, militarily,

Russia can defeat Ukraine. So the grouping of forces Russia has right now, it's 420,000. For sure, they are constantly adjusting technologically.

They try to test new tactics. But despite all the adjustments, all the improvements, we've seen in

2023, 2004, just military component is not enough. Because with technologies both sides possess and the way they employ them,

it gives an advantage to the side which conduct defensive operation, which is Ukraine,

given the proliferation of means of reconnaissance and means of strike,

this war is reminiscent of World War I, where defensive mode was prevalent,

thus Ukraine has an innate advantage.

...