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Centre for European Reform podcast

CER podcast: Putin hits a bad patch

Centre for European Reform podcast

Centre for European Reform

News

4.853 Ratings

🗓️ 6 May 2020

⏱️ 19 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

As 2020 started, Vladimir Putin’s economic, political and diplomatic position looked strong. Now he faces recession, an exploding COVID-19 pandemic and declining domestic support. What does that mean for the West?

Transcript

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0:00.0

From the Centre for European Reform, this is the CER podcast.

0:04.0

It is a critical moment.

0:08.0

If we do not act with urgency, we would then severely undermine the liberal order.

0:16.0

Brexit means Brexit, and we're going to make a success of it.

0:23.6

The wind is back in Europe's sales.

0:26.6

We have now a window of opportunity, but it will not stay open forever.

0:33.6

Good morning and welcome to the CR podcast.

0:38.1

My name is Luigi Scatieri.

0:39.7

I'm a research fellow at the Center for European Reform.

0:43.2

And today I'm speaking to Ian Bond, who's our Director of Foreign Policy on Russia.

0:50.4

So Ian, just to jump straight into it, Russia's had quite a bad year so far, we could say,

0:58.1

in the sense that it was first hit by the drop in the oil price, by engaging in an oil price war,

1:03.0

and then by coronavirus.

1:05.5

Do you want to maybe start off by telling us a bit about how it's dealt with these two crises and indeed

1:11.6

how they came about perhaps? Yeah, well, the oil price war is an entirely self-inflicted wound.

1:19.3

The oil price at the beginning of the year was something over $60 a barrel for Russian crude oil, and that was a very comfortable price for the Russian Treasury,

1:32.5

Russian finance ministry, which sort of aims to get the budget to balance at just over $40 a barrel.

1:41.3

And any surplus above that can go into the sovereign wealth fund, the national welfare fund

1:47.3

it's called and that pays for any shortfalls in pensions or social spending or whatever.

1:53.5

And that's something that Putin was quite keen on boosting this year.

1:57.9

As we're talking today, the price of Russian oil is just over $20 a barrel, and it's

2:04.2

been a bit lower than that. That's because the Russian oil giant Rosneft decided that this was

...

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