CBRE 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook: Investment to Rise 16%
Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
Kathy Fettke / RealWealth
4.5 • 546 Ratings
🗓️ 13 February 2026
⏱️ 8 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Commercial real estate could be a major story in 2026.
In this episode of Real Estate News for Investors, Kathy Fettke breaks down CBRE's 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook and why investment activity is expected to rise 16% — even as GDP growth slows.
We cover what's ahead for cap rates, income-driven returns, and key sectors including office, industrial, retail, multifamily, and data centers. With two expected Fed rate cuts and easing inflation, how could financing conditions impact commercial property performance?
If you're looking for data-backed insight into where commercial real estate is headed in 2026, this episode outlines the risks, opportunities, and what investors should watch next.
Want to learn more? Listen to our other podcast: www.Realwealthshow.com
Source: https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-outlook-2026
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Despite lingering uncertainty, commercial real estate is setting up for a stronger year ahead. |
| 0:05.7 | Today, we're breaking down CBRE's 2026 U.S. real estate market outlook, which shows why commercial real estate could thrive in 2026, even as the broader economy cools. |
| 0:17.8 | I'm Kathy Fedke, and this is real estate news for investors. |
| 0:30.2 | This is Real Estate News with Kathy Fedke. If you like this show, make sure to check out our other podcast, The Real Wealth Show, where I just interviewed Henry Chin, the chief |
| 0:34.5 | economist at CBRE, about this report. Well, let's look at the report. |
| 0:39.1 | CBRE forecast U.S. GDP growth will slow to 2% in 2026, down from 2.3% last year. |
| 0:47.6 | Inflation is expected to ease to an average of 2.5% while the labor market softens further. |
| 0:57.4 | Job growth is projected to slow to just 0.3%, and unemployment expected to rise to 4.5%. Just slightly higher than today. That slower growth is |
| 1:04.3 | already showing up in consumer behavior. Retail sales are moderating and higher income households |
| 1:09.9 | are carrying a larger share of spending. |
| 1:12.3 | Meanwhile, persistent inflation and rising government debt are keeping long-term interest rates elevated, |
| 1:18.4 | even as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates only twice in 2026. That would bring the Fed fund rate to a range of 3 to 3.5%. Still, CBRE expects the 10-year |
| 1:29.7 | treasury yield to end the year below 4%, and the yield curve is likely to steepen, an important |
| 1:36.1 | factor for real estate financing. Despite a possible economic slowdown, commercial real estate |
| 1:42.1 | investment activity is expected to jump 16% in 2026, reaching |
| 1:47.4 | $562 billion, nearly matching pre-pandemic annual averages. According to CBRE, pricing for commercial |
| 1:55.5 | real estate is relatively affordable compared with other asset classes, and capital is beginning to move off the sidelines. |
| 2:03.6 | Total returns in 2026 are expected to be income-driven, not appreciation-driven. Cap rates across |
| 2:10.6 | most property types are forecast to compress by 5 to 15 basis points, with the strongest |
| 2:16.7 | compression occurring in high-quality assets. |
| 2:19.8 | Asset selection and hands-on management will be critical. |
| 2:23.2 | Meanwhile, the office market continues a slow but meaningful recovery. |
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