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What Next | Daily News and Analysis

Can We Trust the Polls This Time?

What Next | Daily News and Analysis

Slate Podcasts

Daily News, News, News Commentary

4.32.4K Ratings

🗓️ 9 September 2020

⏱️ 21 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

For months after Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, pundits labored over how the polls, and the reports surrounding them, had badly misjudged and mischaracterized the election. Since then, pollsters have made significant changes in hopes of painting a more accurate picture of the 2020 race. How much trust should voters put in the numbers this time? And what does the data say about Joe Biden’s perceived lead in the 2020 presidential race? Guest: Jim Newell, Slate’s senior politics writer Slate Plus members get bonus segments and ad-free podcast feeds. Sign up now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Jim Nuel writes about politics for slate. And right now, that job, it can feel a little

0:11.0

like an endurance test.

0:13.0

I, yeah, I just, I'm just like looking, it's what, two months until the election a little

0:18.4

less than two months, I just need to get to the election. Somehow, some way, I need

0:25.4

to summon the will.

0:27.4

Yeah, I, that's a really familiar feeling to me. I mean, how long have you covered Washington

0:34.9

now?

0:35.9

13 years.

0:36.9

Do you remember when talking about politics was fun?

0:40.1

Yeah, vaguely. I remember my first job, I was, I blogged for Wonkett back in 0708. I would

0:48.5

actually, like, they're actually weeks I, I would be mad when the weekend came because

0:52.2

I was having so much fun.

0:57.3

What's not fun is trying to game out the next few weeks and how they'll play with voters.

1:03.1

We all know what happened last time we tried to predict who would be president. In October

1:07.1

of 2016, seven in 10 voters said they thought Hillary Clinton would be moving into the White

1:13.8

House. Among Clinton supporters, 93% expected her to win. A lot of listeners are carrying

1:22.2

their anxiety from 2016 into this race. Can you just sort of stack up where we are now

1:31.6

versus where we were around this time in 2016?

1:34.6

Sure, let me, where are we, what day was, what day is it today?

1:39.3

Uh, September.

1:40.3

To say September 8th.

1:41.7

Eighth.

...

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