Can We Really Trust the Stock Market?
Money Guy Show
Brian Preston, CPA, CFP®, PFS and Bo Hanson, CFA, CFP® | Fee-Only Fiduciary Advisors
4.7 • 3.1K Ratings
🗓️ 9 August 2023
⏱️ 22 minutes
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Summary
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| 0:00.0 | All right, Kevin M. has a question. |
| 0:09.7 | He says we often use an assumed 8% rate of return in projecting portfolio growth. |
| 0:15.3 | We also say past performance does not indicate future results. |
| 0:19.3 | With the stock market only being around 100 years old, how are we confident that this will |
| 0:26.1 | be the case going forward? |
| 0:28.1 | Yeah, here's what I love. |
| 0:30.1 | People think that, well, I don't say people, that's a penny with a broad brush. |
| 0:33.8 | A lot of it, oh, 8%, that's way too aggressive. |
| 0:36.3 | What do you guys think? |
| 0:37.3 | And why are you using that number? |
| 0:38.3 | What's really, really interesting is sometimes when we use 8%, it's actually pretty conservative. |
| 0:42.5 | If you look at what historically the S&P 500 has done over the last 100 years, over |
| 0:47.3 | the last 60 years, whatever metric you want to look at, it's somewhere between, like, |
| 0:52.2 | if you go back 50 years, it's somewhere like 10 to 11% annualized per year. |
| 0:57.6 | So I think that 8% is actually not crazy. |
| 1:01.8 | It's not outside the realm of possibility. |
| 1:04.5 | But one of the ways that we try to ground this, you'll notice a lot of the deliverables |
| 1:09.7 | that we have, if you go to moneyguide.com slash resources and download them, we'll use |
| 1:14.0 | return assumption. |
| 1:15.0 | Like, okay, let's start at 10% for a 20 year old and then let's decrease that return all |
| 1:20.2 | the way till 65. |
| 1:21.2 | So you get to some terminal rate of like 5.5%, 6%, because when it comes to modeling, |
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