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Money Guy Show

Can We Really Trust the Stock Market?

Money Guy Show

Brian Preston, CPA, CFP®, PFS and Bo Hanson, CFA, CFP® | Fee-Only Fiduciary Advisors

Education, Investing, Business

4.73.1K Ratings

🗓️ 9 August 2023

⏱️ 22 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Is the stock market really reliable? How can we be confident in long-term investing in the stock market? We'll walk you through that question and more in today's Q&A episode! Jump start your journey with our FREE financial resources Reach your goals faster with our products Take the relationship to the next level: become a client Subscribe on YouTube for early access and go beyond the podcast Connect with us on social media for more content Bring confidence to your wealth building with simplified strategies from The Money Guy. Learn how to apply financial tactics that go beyond common sense and help you reach your money goals faster. Make your assets do the heavy lifting so you can quit worrying and start living a more fulfilled life. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

All right, Kevin M. has a question.

0:09.7

He says we often use an assumed 8% rate of return in projecting portfolio growth.

0:15.3

We also say past performance does not indicate future results.

0:19.3

With the stock market only being around 100 years old, how are we confident that this will

0:26.1

be the case going forward?

0:28.1

Yeah, here's what I love.

0:30.1

People think that, well, I don't say people, that's a penny with a broad brush.

0:33.8

A lot of it, oh, 8%, that's way too aggressive.

0:36.3

What do you guys think?

0:37.3

And why are you using that number?

0:38.3

What's really, really interesting is sometimes when we use 8%, it's actually pretty conservative.

0:42.5

If you look at what historically the S&P 500 has done over the last 100 years, over

0:47.3

the last 60 years, whatever metric you want to look at, it's somewhere between, like,

0:52.2

if you go back 50 years, it's somewhere like 10 to 11% annualized per year.

0:57.6

So I think that 8% is actually not crazy.

1:01.8

It's not outside the realm of possibility.

1:04.5

But one of the ways that we try to ground this, you'll notice a lot of the deliverables

1:09.7

that we have, if you go to moneyguide.com slash resources and download them, we'll use

1:14.0

return assumption.

1:15.0

Like, okay, let's start at 10% for a 20 year old and then let's decrease that return all

1:20.2

the way till 65.

1:21.2

So you get to some terminal rate of like 5.5%, 6%, because when it comes to modeling,

...

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