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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Can China's data on covid deaths be trusted?

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 7 January 2023

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

When the pandemic took hold, the Chinese government imposed a zero-Covid policy that aimed to contain the virus through mass-testing and strict lockdowns. But early in December, amidst widespread public protests and the spread of the omicron variant to more than 200 cities, those draconian, highly restrictive measures were lifted almost entirely. For the first time in just under two years, the majority of the country’s near one-and-a-half billion citizens were free to meet, mix and mingle where they pleased, triggering what experts believe is a gargantuan wave of covid infections and related deaths. Some analysts say death rates could be as high as15,000 per day. But the Chinese authorities are reporting five or fewer deaths a day. The numbers don't stack up so More or Less's Paul Connolly speaks to some of the world's leading experts and epidemiologists to work out if China's data on covid deaths can be trusted - and, if not, what the real death toll could be.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello, welcome and thanks for downloading the More or Less Podcast.

0:07.0

We focus on numbers in the news or elsewhere in everyday life that ear stick out like

0:11.6

soren and throbbing thumbs or they hide, hoping to go unknowst.

0:16.0

This week, many believe it's more the former than the latter.

0:22.6

China.

0:23.6

Since the pandemic took hold, the government there imposed a zero COVID policy that aimed

0:28.5

to contain the virus through mass testing and strict lockdowns.

0:32.7

But in early December amidst widespread public protests and the spread of the Omicron variant

0:38.4

to more than 200 cities, those draconian highly restrictive measures were scrapped almost

0:44.3

entirely.

0:45.7

For the first time in just under two years, the majority of the countries near one and

0:50.0

a half billion citizens were free to meet, mixed to mingle, where they pleased.

0:55.7

Figuring what experts believe is a gargantuan exit wave of COVID infections and related deaths.

1:02.6

But as a so often the case with Chinese data, it's been well, you know, difficult to confirm.

1:08.8

We still do not have complete data.

1:11.4

We believe that the current numbers being published from China under represents the true

1:15.7

impact of the disease in terms of hospital admissions, in terms of ICU admissions, particularly

1:21.0

in terms of deaths.

1:22.6

That's the World Health Organization's executive director for health emergencies, Dr. Michael

1:26.8

Ryan speaking at a virtual press conference this week.

1:31.0

Since China's zero COVID policy came to an abrupt halt, authorities there reporting

1:35.4

five or fewer deaths a day, but Dr. Ryan and many other experts believe the real number

...

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