4.4 • 677 Ratings
🗓️ 29 July 2024
⏱️ 58 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by investor and bestselling author Larry McDonald. Larry founded The Bear Traps Report, an investment newsletter that looks at global political and systemic risks when making actionable trades. He is also a frequent contributor on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business News.
Larry kicks off the show by sharing his history as a trader at Lehman Brothers and how certain parts of today's market mirror the 2008 crash. He notes that commodities are extremely cheap while semiconductors just hit an all-time high. Larry predicts that capital will migrate back toward real assets. He also discusses what a second Donald Trump presidential term would mean for the bond market, the huge risk with inflation, and a possible bright spot for the housing market as Baby Boomers age. (1:01)
Next, Larry breaks down his trading strategy involving capitulation. He brings up the extreme 20% discount in copper today and makes a five-year bull case for natural gas. This leads to a conversation about the current hot stocks in artificial intelligence ("AI"). Larry says that the AI mania has gotten so bad, chief financial officers at tech companies have to invest in AI even if they don't want to, for fear of losing their jobs. He believes we're in the early stages of an unwinding. And he notes that many companies adjacent to AI, like those relating to the electrical grid, have been left for dead. (17:36)
Finally, Larry explains that the pain cycles following market bubbles should be longer, but quantitative easing has gotten in the way of that natural process. Bad businesses used to be cleaned out, but now they're able to survive. Larry condemns "evil" passive investing and talks about how much worse the practice has gotten in the past decade and a half. He then lists off a few specific stocks he finds attractive today and advises investors to be careful about buying dips. (36:56)
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0:00.0 | Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm Dan Ferris. I'm the editor of Extreme Value and the Ferris Report, both published by Stansberry Research. |
0:09.3 | And I'm Corey McLaughlin, editor of the Stansberry Daily Digest. Today we talk with Larry McDonald, veteran trader and author of a new book, When Markets Speak. |
0:19.1 | Larry has been there and done that, man. |
0:21.6 | He's been around for a long time. |
0:23.6 | Worked at Lehman Brothers, wrote a whole book about it. |
0:26.6 | And he is the progenitor, the creator of the Bear Traps Report, which is exactly what it sounds like. |
0:35.6 | He loves to buy beaten down stuff |
0:38.3 | that everybody hates and that they're selling. |
0:40.8 | He really specializes in that trade |
0:43.5 | as he'll explain during the interview. |
0:46.1 | I found him to be a really bright, |
0:49.1 | wonderful guy who has a lot of anecdotes. |
0:51.9 | I can't wait for you to hear this interview. |
0:54.3 | So let's do it right now. Let's talk this interview. So let's do it right now. |
0:55.6 | Let's talk with Larry McDonald. |
0:57.2 | Let's do it right now. |
1:01.7 | Larry, welcome to the show. |
1:03.5 | Glad you'd be here. |
1:04.5 | Hi, Dan. |
1:05.3 | Thanks very much. |
1:06.4 | All right. |
1:07.7 | There's a lot to talk about here. |
... |
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