Burnham vs Reform: why Makerfield matters
Coffee House Shots
The Spectator
4.4 • 2.2K Ratings
🗓️ 18 May 2026
⏱️ 25 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The by-election in Makerfield is shaping up to be one of the most consequential contests in recent political history. On paper, the seat should be fertile ground for Reform: heavily Leave-voting, older than average and exactly the sort of ‘left behind’ constituency Nigel Farage hopes to win. But there is one complicating factor: Andy Burnham.
The Mayor of Greater Manchester is hoping that his personal popularity can defy the political gravity of the seat and carry him back to Westminster – where, if he wins, Labour MPs may well carry him straight towards No. 10. But can Burnham survive Reform’s attacks on immigration, Brexit and his record? And could Wes Streeting’s intervention on rejoining the EU prove fatal in a seat like Makerfield?
Tim Shipman is joined by Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, to discuss why this by-election could decide not just Labour’s next leader, but the future shape of British politics.
Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
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Transcript
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| 0:35.1 | Hello and welcome to Coffee House. I'm Tim Shipman, the political edge of the spectator, |
| 0:38.9 | and my usual sidekick, Mr James Hill, is not with us this week. So I am delighted to be joined |
| 0:44.6 | by Luke Trill of More in Common, one of Britain's leading pollsters, one of the best focus group is in |
| 0:49.6 | the business, the man who has his finger on the pulse of the British voter, and nowhere more so than in those |
| 0:56.8 | red wall seats that he has chronicled extensively over the last few years. And that is now key, |
| 1:01.9 | of course, because there's only one subject on everybody's minds, and that is the Makerfield |
| 1:06.3 | by-election coming up in mid-June, which is going to decide not just who the MP for McElfield is, |
| 1:11.8 | but very likely who the next prime minister is as well. So, Luke, delighted to have you with us. |
| 1:17.2 | Great to be here. So, look, this is probably the most sort of bizarre and exciting bar election |
| 1:23.6 | we've ever had in British political history. And we, you know, journalists are giving to hyperbole. But I can't think of occasion where we've had one that's literally going to decide who runs the country in quite this way. And he's quite often, you get leaders parachuted into seats or they go with no opposition, you know, at various points in our political history to just get a seat so they can go and be the prime minister. |
| 1:48.2 | But this is a proper contest. And what are you hearing from the ground? Have you done any straight constituency polling yet? And just talk us through what you're seeing from all the pollsters. |
| 1:52.5 | Where does this contest lie at? Yeah. So I would go a step further in terms of how to Temic, |
| 1:58.8 | I think, this by-election is, not just will it decide likely the next |
| 2:02.7 | Prime Minister, but actually the entire contours of electoral competition in the run-up to the next |
| 2:08.6 | election. That's because if you look at Makerfield, on almost every level, it is a seat |
| 2:16.1 | tailor-made for reform to gain. |
... |
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