Pushkin

As the night draws in and the fire blazes on the hearth, we warm the children by telling them stories.

Cinderella teaches them that if you want to leave the party early, leave your phone number rather than a piece of design of footwear.

But my story is, a for the education of the grownups, and my story is a raw true.

I'm Tim Halford, gather close and listen to my cautionary tales.

The day of the day

Late one evening on the 20th of December 1954, a small group of people sat together in a living room in Oak Park, a suburb of Chicago, waiting for the end of the world.

They were led by a woman named Dorothy Martin, who was a conduit for messages from aliens, or God, or both.

The messages were alarming. At midnight, the aliens would land a flying saucer in the backyard and convey the true believers to the safety of a planet named Clarion.

Then, at dawn, a cataclysmic flood would destroy much of the world.

Now, at five minutes to midnight, the believers were waiting. Some were disheveled, since the aliens had demanded they remove all metal from their clothing.

Braklips, buttons, even trousers, Ips, have been hastily slashed away by fumbling hands wielding scissors or razors.

Some of the group were there out of mere curiosity. Others had sacrificed almost everything for this moment. They'd quit their jobs, given away their possessions, and said farewell to their families.

But what distinguishes this particular apocalyptic cult from all the others is that a small team of social scientists, led by the world-renowned psychologist, Leon Festinger, had managed to infiltrate it.

They were there to witness what happened at midnight, and in particular, how the group reacted to the appearance, or possibly the non-appearance of the aliens.

Gather round, and I'll tell you another cautionary tale.

I'll tell you all about what happened with Leon Festinger, Dorothy Martin, and the aliens in due course. But for a moment, let's leave them there in Chicago, anxiously waiting for the end of days.

Because I have another story to tell you. And it's not a story about crazy cult members, but about two economists.

Indeed, two of the most celebrated economists who ever lived. And what do these economists have to do with a UFO cult in 1950s Chicago? It's very simple. Just like Dorothy Martin, they try to see into the future. And trying to see into the future, it's a dangerous business.

One of the economists I want to tell you about is the great British polymath, John Maynard Canes. You may have heard of him. He's a colossal figure in economics, overturning the ideas that had gone before him, and then reshaping the post-war economic system.

Many economists still call themselves Canesians. Like him or hate him. In economics, you can't get much bigger than John Maynard Canes.

Except that in his day, you could. When Canes first strode the world stage, he did so in the shadow of another man. In 1924, the Wall Street Journal tried to describe John Maynard Canes, this up-and-coming economist.

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