Brevan Howard's Top Economist Sees Three Huge Macro Turning Points Under Way
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.5 • 2K Ratings
🗓️ 22 January 2024
⏱️ 54 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Right now, there's a lot of hope and optimism that the US economy is on a path towards a soft landing. Nonetheless, there are aspects of the current landscape that are unsettling. Inflation has come down, but there's significant debate as to why and how sustainable that move is. Geopolitics is another source of concern, given multiple ongoing conflicts. According to Jason Cummins, the chief economist and head of research at macro hedge fund Brevan Howard, we're currently seeing the demise of three different eras: the end of secular stagnation, the end of China's "get rich it all costs" era, and the end of "the end of history," as liberal democracy clashes with other competing frameworks. On this episode of the podcast, we talk about how these ideas are applied practically, in terms of trades, and also why he believes that recession is coming to the US economy in 2024.
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| 0:15.0 | The world is more complex than ever, but that complexity pushes me to look at the bigger picture. |
| 0:21.0 | I'm Emily Chang and I cover tech, culture, innovation, and the future of business for Bloomberg. |
| 0:27.2 | At Bloomberg reporters like me dig into the context of a story so you understand how it impacts |
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| 0:36.1 | you change things. Context changes everything. Start watching my shows and more at bloom.com. Hello and I'm Tracy Allaway. Tracy, you know what actually |
| 0:54.0 | to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast? |
| 0:59.0 | I'm Jill Wiesenthal. |
| 1:01.0 | And I'm Tracy Allaway. |
| 1:02.0 | Tracy, you know what actually surprises me a little bit about 2024, maybe 2023? |
| 1:08.0 | We're only two weeks in, so go on. or maybe it's 2023 so here's what surprised me |
| 1:15.6 | I've been thinking about this like we've had this a huge increase in raids we're |
| 1:19.2 | coming to the end you know the pandemic like shook the world, but by and large, |
| 1:25.5 | like things have normalized. |
| 1:27.2 | In some level, I'm surprised that things aren't |
| 1:30.1 | more different than they are. |
| 1:31.3 | And in fact, like, you know, we have the Nasdaq surging. I was just looking at it's like the Nasdaq was surging back of the day. |
| 1:37.0 | The Nasdaq. |
| 1:38.0 | crypto is back. Like, I thought the world was going to change or turned up upside down and yet like I'm kind of surprisingly have this seemingly different macro environment and I'm a little surprised by how many themes actually did not go away or did not change. |
| 1:52.4 | It's kind of crazy. So rates have |
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