4.4 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 4 October 2022
⏱️ 20 minutes
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0:00.0 | Global currencies from the British pound and the Japanese |
0:03.3 | Yen to the Chinese Yuan are plunging at the same time the US dollar is |
0:08.2 | surging to new highs. So what's behind the volatility in the currency markets and how much higher can the dollar go? |
0:15.2 | Under our central scenario, we think even from current strong levels the dollar can appreciate further. |
0:21.0 | We have another couple of percent dollar appreciation baked into our forecasts for the next few months. |
0:27.0 | But in a more hockish scenario where US inflation is more entrenched, |
0:31.7 | the Fed needs to move further and keep rates higher |
0:35.2 | for longer than envisaged I think you could see another five to seven percent |
0:40.0 | appreciation on the broad dollar in that sort of hawkish scenario. |
0:44.0 | I'm Alta Nathan and with my colleague in Goldman Sachs research, Kamakia Trevetti, head of global foreign exchange, |
1:05.4 | interest rates, and emerging market strategy research. |
1:08.1 | Kamaxia, welcome back to the program. |
1:10.0 | Thanks, Allison. Pleasure to be here. |
1:12.0 | So it's been a pretty crazy time in the currency market, it's Kamakshia. |
1:15.8 | There's so much to talk about. |
1:17.0 | I can't wait for this conversation. |
1:18.3 | So let's start with what's happening in the UK where you're based. The pound took an absolute beating last |
1:25.1 | week on the back of the new government's tax plan and it even came within |
1:30.3 | spinning distance of parity with the US dollar, |
1:33.6 | although this weakness in the pound |
1:36.2 | has reversed somewhat on the Bank of England's |
1:38.8 | announcement to buy back UK sovereign bonds or gilts. So where does the pound go from here? |
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