I'm actually not well. I'm still under the weather but there's a lot of stuff going on in the news today so I wanted to at least do one video to review what has been happening so let me do a screen share and we'll get right over to C and B. And the big news of the day is the job numbers disappointed the jolts

numbers and as a result the yield curve uninverted.

And as most of you know from watching my videos, usually this cycle plays out over and over and over again the exact same way and that is where the curve in

and in an inverts to do a bull steeper which is the front of the curve coming down

a lot faster than the long end and then what you

have is the unemployment rate spikes up and you start to see all this anecdotal evidence

suggesting that the economy is slowing such as McDonald saying that their customers can

afford a $5 value menu, such as Dollar General, Tanking, Dollar Tree, another one of the

Dollar Stores I know.

Their stock really got hit today or yesterday,

just some of that anecdotal evidence.

And then what you see is the curve, uninvirt, a sustained uninvursion, and then the Fed drops rates and then the stuff

hits the fan.

It's just over and over and over again.

And people are saying that this time it's been a longer cycle. Well, maybe, but maybe not, because let's remember that the

NBER always announces that we've had a recession much, much, much further down the road than when the recession act

actually 8 is the NBR came out in December of 2008 and actually announced that we were in a recession in in January.

So a whole year after the recession had started, they actually came out at the minute.

So are we long in the tooth right now?

I don't know.

It depends on when the NBER comes out and actually admits that we are actually in a recession assuming we're in one now.

We're going into one very soon, which is what the yield curve is indicating, what the cycle is

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