BREAKDOWN: The Shorter Cycle Theory With Larry Cermak
CoinDesk Podcast Network
CoinDesk
4.8 • 689 Ratings
🗓️ 18 June 2021
⏱️ 36 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
"It's either shorter-term bear markets, or it's just going to zero. And I really don't believe it's going to go to zero."
This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io and Bitstamp.
The idea of a multiyear supercycle is fading as shorter cycles take their place. In this episode, NLW and guest Larry Cermak, director of research at The Block, discuss the transformation of the supercycle timeline as the crypto space evolves. The discussion includes:
- An analysis of the macro-narrative and the current “wait-and-see” mode
- Shorter cycles taking hold as the crypto space matures
The larger institutional narrative promised a bevy of substantial allocators to contribute to the market. That narrative, however, has weakened over time as the promise falls short. Add on the uncertainty from China’s partial ban on mining and Tesla’s environmental concerns, and the narrative continues to lose momentum. What narrative will take over next? When will this “wait-and-see” mode end?
Historically, crypto was perceived to fall into semi-stable cycles. For a couple of years, prices would rise, and for the next two or three years after, prices crash. However, with longer-term investors and a broader focus on usability over speculation, is there now a foundation for a more stable market with shorter cycles?
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Transcript
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| 0:49.7 | You know, it becomes harder to argue that it is a Ponzi scheme and a massive bubble when time and time again, |
| 0:57.5 | it has gone up and gone up more. |
| 1:00.0 | And the people that keep holding long term are the ones that are better off than before. |
| 1:04.7 | So I just find it very unlikely that it's going to take another two, three years for people |
| 1:09.3 | to be convinced to jump in again. |
| 1:16.6 | And mainly because a lot of these macro investors and long-term investors, they're holding long-term. |
| 1:18.8 | They're not interested in just flipping. |
| 1:23.7 | Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. |
| 1:29.5 | It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. |
| 1:36.1 | The breakdown is sponsored by nexus.a.o and BitStamp and produced and distributed by CoinDess. |
| 1:46.3 | What's going on, guys? It is Friday, June 18th, and today I am super excited to share a conversation with Larry Sermak. |
| 1:51.2 | Larry is the director of research at the block and is just one of the most thoughtful observers of the space out there. One of the things that has been on everyone's mind is, is this |
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