BREAKDOWN: So, Are We Headed Into Recession or Not?
CoinDesk Podcast Network
CoinDesk
4.8 • 689 Ratings
🗓️ 6 June 2022
⏱️ 17 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Corporate America seems to be more convinced that it is inevitable.
This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, NEAR and FTX US.
Last week, corporate executives from Tesla’s Elon Musk to BlackRock’s Larry Fink discussed what they see as a coming recession. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called the coming economic environment a “hurricane.” At the same time, last week’s jobs report was a surprise, as payrolls grew more than economists expected. On today’s show, NLW looks at the two sides of the recession debate.
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“The Breakdown” is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell, research by Scott Hill and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsors is “Catnip” by Famous Cats and “I Don't Know How To Explain It” by Aaron Sprinkle. Image credit: Malte Mueller/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. |
| 0:09.1 | It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. |
| 0:14.9 | The breakdown is sponsored by nexo.io, near an FTX, and produced and distributed by CoinDesk. |
| 0:22.7 | What's going on, guys? It is Monday, June 6th, and today we are asking the question, |
| 0:28.8 | are we headed to recession or not? Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the |
| 0:33.9 | breakdown, please go subscribe, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to |
| 0:38.2 | dig deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show |
| 0:43.3 | notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Lastly, a disclosure as always, in addition to them |
| 0:49.4 | being a sponsor of the show, I also work with FTX. So today we are discussing the most debated question in economics |
| 0:56.6 | right now. A few months ago, of course, the discourse was all about inflation. Now it's all about |
| 1:03.3 | recession. Whether we're headed there, on what time frame, how bad it will be, and what it might |
| 1:09.0 | mean in terms of Fed policy. |
| 1:15.5 | Markets are guessing at this, businesses are guessing at this, average citizens are guessing at this. |
| 1:21.5 | Of course, the Fed is aiming for a soft landing, or as they recently updated their language to a soft-dish landing. |
| 1:23.8 | What the Fed is trying to do right now is to use rate hikes and quantitative tightening or balance sheet reduction to cool economic activity. |
| 1:32.3 | The Fed can't fix supply chains. They can't uninvade Ukraine and make energy costs come down. |
| 1:38.3 | All the Fed can do is make money lending more expensive, so less of it happens, and hope that pumps the brakes on demand. |
| 1:45.2 | Now, they're trying to do that in a way that doesn't cause economic harm in the other direction. |
| 1:49.9 | That soft or soft-dish landing that they're going for is to bring inflation down without causing a |
| 1:54.9 | recession. But if you've paid any attention at all to the business news over the last week, |
| 2:00.7 | you've probably noticed a growing all to the business news over the last week, you've probably |
| 2:01.2 | noticed a growing chorus of business leaders calling a recession inevitable. |
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