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BREAKDOWN: How Bitcoin Gets to $100,000

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4.8689 Ratings

🗓️ 29 November 2020

⏱️ 21 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Another look at the bitcoin valuation models that could possibly lead to a six-figure bitcoin valuation over the course of the next year.

This episode is sponsored by Crypto.com and Nexo.io.

On this edition of The Breakdown’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads a recent piece by Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoin. 

In it, Fang provides a set of valuation models and scenarios that plausibly lead to bitcoin achieving a significant $100,000 value over the course of 2021.


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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:09.1

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

0:15.2

The breakdown is sponsored by crypto.com and nexo.io, and produced and distributed by coin desk.

0:22.6

What's going on, guys? It is Sunday, November 29th, and that means it's time for Longreed Sunday.

0:30.2

So because of the holiday, I'm recording this earlier in the week. I apologize in advance,

0:36.0

if anything crazy has happened between now and then. But I thought

0:39.5

it would be fun for this holiday weekend to read some delicious red meat for you bitcoiners out there.

0:46.1

This is called the complete case for 100K Bitcoin and is by Hong Fang. Hong is the CEO at OKC

0:53.8

coin. She has been on this show talking about their

0:56.6

investment, their grant to a Bitcoin core developer. And I thought that this piece was a really

1:02.6

good follow-up to my episode with BJ Boyapati from a couple weeks ago. It was all about

1:07.5

valuation frameworks for Bitcoin, different ways of understanding what the price

1:12.5

of Bitcoin might be based on the mental models we have for it. This puts some more numbers

1:17.9

around that in a way that I think you guys will appreciate, and it's a fun little piece. So without

1:22.4

any further ado, here is the complete case for 100K Bitcoin. What a year, a global pandemic, a wavering stock

1:32.0

market, rising numbers of unemployed people, and continued uncertainty in global markets.

1:37.0

Yet we saw the Bitcoin price recover from 5,300 in March to almost 18,000 at time of writing.

1:43.0

That's almost a 240% return within nine months.

1:46.5

For regular investors, the burning question is whether Bitcoin is becoming overpriced. Is it too

1:51.0

late to buy? If we put aside short-term volatility and take a long-term perspective,

1:56.0

there is a reasonable path for the price of Bitcoin to reach over 500,000 in the next decade.

2:01.9

To go even further,

...

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