BREAKDOWN: Exit Plans, Premature Rallies and Frontline Heroes, Feat. Ben Hunt
CoinDesk Podcast Network
CoinDesk
4.8 • 689 Ratings
🗓️ 7 April 2020
⏱️ 36 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Epsilon Theory’s Ben Hunt joins for a follow up to our pre-lockdown Covid-19 conversation in early March. In the month since, the markets finally started to take Covid-19 seriously, elected officials stopped calling it just the flu, and big chunks of the world economy shut down.
Now, as markets rally on early evidence the curve may be flattening, the question is: is this premature?
In this episode, Ben & NLW discuss:
- How the markets have moved from “denial” to “bargaining”
- Why this rally has all the hallmarks of a type of bear market rally we’ve seen over the last month
- Why the predictability of corporate bailouts doesn’t make them any less detestable
- Why we should be buoyed by an explosion of ground-up, grassroots citizen action
- How Frontline Heroes is creating a p2p PPE purchasing network that gets essential gear into the hands of health professionals without causing additional price pressure for state-led negotiations
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome back to The Breakdown, an everyday analysis breaking down the most important stories in Bitcoin, crypto, and beyond, with your host, NLW. |
| 0:15.0 | The Breakdown is distributed by CoinDesk. |
| 0:20.0 | Welcome back to The Breakdown. |
| 0:22.3 | It is Tuesday, April 7th. |
| 0:24.1 | And today, our main content is almost a follow-up to an interview from a few weeks ago. |
| 0:30.0 | Those of you who are listening then, remember I had Ben Hunt on to talk about narrative |
| 0:34.5 | dislocation in the markets, right? |
| 0:36.5 | And this was at a point at which the markets had |
| 0:38.1 | only just begun to grapple with the potential implications of COVID-19. It was pre-shutdown, |
| 0:44.4 | so a very different world, right? This was the before, in the before-after that I believe that we're |
| 0:49.9 | going to have when all of this is resolved, or at least through this first phase. Now, part of what's |
| 0:57.0 | changed is that over the last couple days, markets have been absolutely surging. The Dow was up |
| 1:03.4 | something like 7% yesterday and is up 3% at the time that I'm recording this again today. |
| 1:08.4 | And I think it's really interesting just how disparate the |
| 1:12.2 | opinions on this are. So last night, I tweeted out, markets are, A, correctly reacting to positive |
| 1:18.4 | signals around a potentially flattened curve, B, in denial about continued economic pain, |
| 1:24.3 | or C, something else. There were some who thought it was A, right? We have the |
| 1:29.8 | beginning embers of good news. It seems that New York's curve is flattening, and that has |
| 1:35.7 | obviously been the epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S. It seems like some of the curves in Europe |
| 1:41.4 | may also be flattening. So perhaps it is A, the market was |
| 1:46.5 | incredibly fearful before and is returning to form. Now, what would make this make sense is that |
| 1:52.2 | all of the stimulus that happened didn't really have an immediate impact on the markets, |
... |
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