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BREAKDOWN: Dollar Decline and the Paralysis of Conventional Monetary Policy

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4.8689 Ratings

🗓️ 15 November 2020

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

A reading of Kenneth Rogoff’s latest piece on the strange reality of the dollar’s global status. 

This episode is sponsored by Crypto.com and Nexo.io.

On this week’s edition of Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads former IMF chief and current Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s latest Op-Ed, “The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm” in Project Syndicate.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:09.2

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

0:15.2

The breakdown is sponsored by crypto.com and nexo.io and produced and distributed by CoinD desk. What's going on, guys? It is Sunday,

0:25.4

November 15th, and that means it's time for Long Reads Sunday. And today's LRS gets at one of the

0:34.0

most fundamental questions in macroeconomics, which is currency competition.

0:39.5

There is a great debate afoot on the role of the dollar in the world,

0:44.8

what might be competing of today's currencies, but also whether an entirely new system is

0:51.2

likely to emerge. How many times over the last few months have you heard a call

0:56.0

for an invocation of a new Breton Woods? This is a key, key question. The piece is called

1:04.2

The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm, and it was written by Harvard professor and former

1:09.8

IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff.

1:12.7

It was published by Project Syndicate, which is an awesome op-ed-only publication.

1:17.3

I highly encourage you to check it out.

1:19.2

So let's read now The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm.

1:24.2

Core dollar exchange rates have so far been surprisingly stable during the pandemic, most

1:29.8

likely because major central bank's policy interest rates are effectively frozen at or near zero.

1:35.1

But although the current stasis could last a while, it will not last forever.

1:39.4

With alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin thriving in the pandemic, some top economists

1:44.1

are predicting a sharp fall in the pandemic, some top economists are predicting

1:44.7

a sharp fall in the U.S. dollar. This could yet happen. But so far, despite inconsistent

1:50.8

U.S. management of the pandemic, massive deficit spending for economic catastrophe relief,

1:55.8

and monetary easing that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says has crossed a lot of red lines,

...

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