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Stay Tuned with Preet

Born to Poll (with J. Ann Selzer)

Stay Tuned with Preet

Vox Media Podcast Network

Society & Culture, Politics, Government, News

4.832.3K Ratings

🗓️ 16 January 2020

⏱️ 79 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On this week’s episode of Stay Tuned, "Born to Poll," host Preet Bharara answers your questions about: -- Former Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn's move to withdraw his guilty plea -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's announcement naming the House Impeachment Managers -- The documents provided to the House Intelligence Committee by Rudy Giuliani's associate, Lev Parnas The guest is J. Ann Selzer, the president and founder of polling firm Selzer & Company. She is one of the country's most widely-respected pollsters and has been overseeing the Des Moines Register Iowa poll almost every year since the 1980s. REFERENCES & SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIALS THE Q&A MICHAEL FLYNN Mr. Flynn’s Motion to Withdraw Plea of Guilty And Unopposed Motion for Continuance, 1/14/20 “Allocution,” Legal Information Institute Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, Rule 11. Pleas, Legal Information Institute “Michael Flynn moves to withdraw guilty plea, claiming government ‘vindictiveness,’” Washington Post, 1/14/20 IMPEACHMENT Pelosi Names Impeachment Managers, Speaker of the House, 1/15/20 “Who are the impeachment managers prosecuting the case against Trump in the Senate trial?” Washington Post, 1/15/20 Documents provided by Lev Parnas to House investigators “Ukraine prosecutor offered information related to Biden in exchange for ambassador’s ouster, newly released materials show,” Washington Post, 1/14/20 “Meet the Trump Donor Who Allegedly Stalked America’s Ambassador in Ukraine,” Daily Beast, 1/14/20 THE INTERVIEW Elizabeth Winkler, “The Pollster Who Figured Out Iowa’s Quirky Caucuses,” Wall Street Journal, 1/3/2020 Brianne Pfannenstiel, “Bernie Sanders Leads the Iowa Poll for the First Time, Weeks Before the Iowa Caucuses,” Des Moines Register, 1/10/2020 Iowa Poll Methodology, Selzer & Company,1/10/2020 Brianne Pfannenstiel, “Iowa Poll: Pete Buttigieg Rockets to the Top of the 2020 Field as a Clear Front-Runner,” Des Moines Register, 11/16/2019 Iowa Poll Methodology, Selzer & Company, 11/16/2019 Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich, “What the Heck is Going on With Tom Steyer’s Poll Numbers?” FiveThirtyEight, 1/13/2020 Clare Malone, “Ann Selzer is the Best Pollster in Politics,” FiveThirtyEight, 1/27/2016 Nate Silver, “Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout,” FiveThirtyEight, 9/26/2008 Steven Shepard, “Ann Selzer’s Secret Sauce,” POLITICO, 12/12/2015 Jonathan Allen and Amie Parmes, Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign, Penguin Random House, 2017 J. Ann Selzer, Tweet about Iowa Poll Timing, Twitter, 1/2/2020 J. Ann Selzer, “How Cruz and Sanders Defied the Iowa Polls, Including Our Own,” Bloomberg, 2/2/2016 “Kerry Comes Back to Win Dramatic Caucuses,” CNN, 1/20/2004 Jeff Zeleny and Jim Rutenberg, “Last-Minute Scramble as Caucus Night Nears,” New York Times, 12/31/2011 Liz Halloran, “Is Huntsman Wrong to Skip Iowa?” NPR, 6/21/2011 “For Gauging Goofiness, Majority Back Iowa Poll,” New York Times, 1/29/1990 THE BUTTON Clip of Doug Collins on Fox, 1/8/20 “Preet Bharara to Georgia congressman: You've hit a shocking new low,” CNN, 1/09/20 Preet’s first, second, and third tweet about Rep. Doug Collins, 1/8/20 Doug Collins’ twitter apology, 1/10/20 As always, tweet your questions to @PreetBharara with hashtag #askpreet, email us at [email protected], or call 669-247-7338 to leave a voicemail. Sign up to receive the CAFE Brief, a weekly newsletter featuring analysis of politically charged legal news, and updates from Preet. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

This episode is brought to you by Slack. With Slack, you can bring all your people and

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like huddles for quick check-ins or Slack Connect, which helps you connect with partners

0:20.9

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0:26.9

Slack.com slash DHQ.

0:55.9

From Cafe, welcome to Stay Tuned.

0:58.9

I'm Pete Barara.

1:00.9

There's not a lot for me to say firmly about what will happen as this primary plays out.

1:06.9

It's one of the most fascinating contests we've had. I say that every year, but it's

1:13.9

truly, it's got a lot of complications.

1:18.9

That's Ann Selzer. She's the president and founder of the polling firm Selzer & Company,

1:23.7

and one of the most accurate and admired pollsters in the country. A fixture in Iowa, Selzer

1:28.5

has been running political polls for the Des Moines Register almost every year since the

1:31.7

1980s. And with the critical Iowa caucuses approaching February 3rd, Selzer and I dive

1:36.5

deep into the mechanics and methodology of polling. Is it an art or a science? What's the

1:41.5

appropriate sample size? How do we guard against bias? What should we expect in Iowa?

1:47.1

And what distinguishes Selzer's approach to polling from others? We get into all of

1:51.0

that and more. But first, let's get to your questions. Stay tuned.

2:02.3

This question comes from Twitter user Samper Sand M. At Pete Barara, do judges often allow

2:07.5

a reversal of a guilty plea? I understand that the judge has to sign off on Michael Flynn's

2:11.6

just announced move to change his plea, hashtag askPreet. Thank you.

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