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And so let me go back to my discussion of the smart bomb trap.

And let me then also link this to the 20 years I've been modeling the bombing of Iran in my classes at the University of Chicago.

So every spring, I teach a class called Strategy.

And for 20 years, the last day, for 20 years, including last May, was 90 minutes on the hypothetical

bombing of Iran, where we're going to start out with, we're going to weigh it out, we're going

to do the bombing of the nuclear sites, we're going to start out with, we're going to weigh it out, we're going to do the

bombing of the nuclear sites, we're going to talk about the consequences and dot, dot, dot.

And what I tell them is this is going to go, the analysis is this is going to go through stages.

Stage one, which is stage one of the smart bomb trap, the specific variant of the escalation

trap, the smart bomb trap is the bombs will destroy the targets, the American bombs, 90%.

The Israelis can't take out Fordell, I explained to them. Only the Americans could.

And that's exactly what happened in the real world.

And the Israeli Air Force, by the way, is listened to this, and they gave me a patch one time because they thought I had gotten the analysis so close.

And I'm talking about the analysis of bombing Iran.

So the stage one is where the bombs are near 100% tactically successful in hitting their target.

But what happens in stage one is they're strategically a failure because the goal is not just

to destroy the industrial sites of Fordo and Natanz, which enrich uranium, but to get the enriched uranium itself.

And by last May, the enriched uranium was 1,000 pounds, 60% enriched, 10,000 pounds, 5 and 20% enriched.

And what that is is enough material for between 10 and 16 nuclear weapons.

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