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Top Traders Unplugged

BO97: The Most Influential Look-back Period and How to Find it

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 12 June 2020

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Which timeframe holds the most influence on markets?

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Then we have a couple of questions from one of my favorite listeners, Dimitri, who is based in the UK.

0:11.0

And he asks, I understand that larger timeframes are expected to have more influence on price momentum than smaller timeframes.

0:21.5

But what timeframes does successful systematic trend following fund consider too large?

0:26.7

It's probably too long, I would imagine, to be effective.

0:30.9

For example, the yearly time frame may be more influential than the monthly time frame,

0:36.2

but a lot can happen in a year

0:39.2

in terms of the fundamentals of a company, currency, a commodity. So would a CCA fund be looking

0:45.9

at a quarterly as the largest, most influential timeframe or the monthly perhaps, or is it

0:52.8

dependent on the instrument being traded?

0:55.8

I understand the price is everything,

0:57.9

but is there a time frame where fundamentals keep getting in the way of price action,

1:04.0

therefore repeatedly screwing expectancy?

1:10.0

So, I mean, let me kick it off this time then with this. I mean, we try at Don

1:17.7

not to restrict necessarily the model within a certain time frame, meaning we do want to allow it to

1:25.7

look at different time frames. and we do this in a purely

1:28.2

systematic way and it's anywhere from a few weeks really up to a couple of years that we think is a

1:35.4

reasonable time frame to consider but then we want the system or the model to really make the choices

1:41.2

for us and we do that actually on a weekly basis now.

1:45.0

In the old days since 2006, when we implemented this methodology,

1:49.5

we could only do it once a month because it's a lot of calculations to do this.

1:55.0

But nowadays we can do it on a weekly basis.

1:57.4

So it doesn't mean that anything will change on a weekly basis,

...

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