4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 28 May 2020
⏱️ 5 minutes
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How to know when you should modify your system or take discretionary decisions.
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0:00.0 | Couple more. Also, a listener question. Long-term listener, shares the same name as me, Moritz. |
0:09.5 | He's asking you how you go about changing your systems over time and how you modify systems, |
0:17.0 | how you detect decay and, you know, obviously, you know, those are those are subjective decisions I'd say and it's the |
0:24.1 | discretionary thing that even systematic traders need to admit that they're doing which is fine |
0:28.9 | is there anything else that you're doing on discretionary basis I mean in terms of |
0:35.5 | changing the system I try and change it as little as possible. |
0:40.3 | I think there's probably a bias in institutional world at least that this was my experience |
0:46.3 | towards changing systems too much. So if you say well I've got a 40 year back test |
0:53.3 | and I've now got another |
0:55.5 | year of data, is that really going to change my mind very much? |
1:01.3 | If I was to refit the system and then compare the parameters and say, well, they've changed, |
1:06.7 | yes, but on a statistical basis, have they really changed that much? |
1:09.5 | No, probably not. |
1:16.7 | So ideally, I'd only be changing the system probably when I was introducing something new into it. So if I have a new kind of trading rule or a new instrument, that that obviously |
1:21.6 | means that the capital has to be redeployed. And to be honest, actually, over the last few years, I've mostly been taking |
1:31.0 | stuff out and that's not been because I've joined the Club of Neals and saying that fewer |
1:37.0 | instruments is better. |
1:39.0 | It's been exogenous things like the fees on market data being increased. As an individual trader, I couldn't |
1:46.8 | justify paying the higher fees. It's been actually, there is one perhaps more interesting |
1:53.8 | example, which is when volatility has fallen too low in a particular instrument. It was the |
2:00.4 | two-year German bond future, the Shats, and the volatility had reduced to a level |
2:06.6 | where basically the trading costs on a risk-adjusted basis would just exploded, and the size |
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