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Top Traders Unplugged

BO69: Process over Outcome

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 1 May 2020

⏱️ 2 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Why a winning or losing bet may not mean that it was a good or bad decision.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

And just kind of hear you talk about them through your lens.

0:06.5

And the first one that comes to mind is this thing, process over outcome.

0:11.6

Tell me why this is important when it comes to investing.

0:15.0

So my friend Annie Duke is a poker player, and she's written a great book called Thinking and Betts. And she refers to this as

0:23.4

resulting. You know, we all the time, we sort of work backwards from the results or the outcomes of

0:30.4

something and decide post hoc whether or not it was a good decision. Being a good investor means you have to work in the in the

0:39.3

opposite direction. You need to you need to follow a process. So you know your man Kierkegaard said

0:45.8

something to the effect of you know life must life can only be understood looking backwards,

0:51.3

but it must be looked, lived you, moving forward. Right. And so

0:55.8

that's what we have to understand. So we, we have to do the, do the right thing, follow the

1:02.8

right process, even though it's not going to always end in the outcome that we want. I shared a,

1:09.7

I shared a tweet this week week there was a gentleman in

1:14.4

Italy I believe he put a hundred thousand dollars he was playing craps he put a hundred

1:20.4

thousand dollars on whatever it was I don't I don't gamble so you know red 25 or whatever it was

1:25.9

and it and it hit or sorry rou was. And it hit, or sorry, roulette rather, and it hit.

1:30.3

And so he won three and a half million dollars on his $100,000 bet.

1:35.9

So you look at that and go, did that guy make a good decision?

1:39.7

You ask the average person, did this guy make a good decision?

1:43.3

And the average person on the street will

1:45.4

say, yeah, like, yeah, that's a great decision because he, you know, he won three million,

1:51.3

three and a half million dollars on this. The behavioral investor understands that you can get the

1:57.6

right outcome and still be a moron. Like that guy is still an idiot, even though he won, right?

...

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