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Top Traders Unplugged

BO54: Embracing Volatility

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 9 April 2020

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Bill Dreiss discusses embracing the uncontrollable nature of Volatility, and explains some of the dangers of what he calls ‘warehousing risk.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Let's shift gear to a very important topic, namely risk management.

0:07.8

How do you define risk?

0:09.3

I know that you are not a big fan of standard deviation.

0:14.2

So how do you define risk in your own methodology?

0:19.6

Well, I think, you know from my uh from my sort of

0:25.1

philosophical position i'm very suspicious as any kind of things like v a r any kind of the standard

0:32.4

risk risk metrics i just think that you know risk is risk is out there and your worst drawdowns always in

0:39.1

the future. And I find, I think, if you look back over time, you find, again, some pretty

0:44.8

standard risk profiles. You look at anybody who's been around for, say, 20 years or so, or maybe even

0:49.7

10. Almost every one of those managers has had a major drawdown by which I characterize as 50% or more.

0:59.9

And usually just one, right?

1:02.8

You know, I was fortunate, and mine didn't happen until 2013, so I went for a long time and living a charmed life in a way. But, you know, anybody who's been

1:12.7

around for a while has had one of those catastrophic drawdowns. And in some cases, those are called blowups

1:17.9

and they go out of business. Somebody like Richard Dennis did it three times, I think. You know,

1:23.6

if you can live through those, which again is much more a function of how well your

1:30.2

business is run and how stable your client support is and how dedicated your marketing team is,

1:38.1

if you can ride through those, then you can come out the other side. Okay, so I'm sort of getting off the subject, but as far as risk goes, no, I think the risk profiles of, to some extent, you can over manage risk.

1:51.6

There's just some things you just have to accept and you can't really control.

1:56.8

And I think the most important factor that has to do with risk is whether the manager is going to lose his head or not.

2:05.7

You know, the people who've survived in this business are people who've been able to weather those, you know, weather drawdowns without, you know, losing their nerve.

2:16.9

That's exactly it.

2:18.3

And so that's where the risk comes in.

...

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