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Top Traders Unplugged

BO53: Trend Trading vs Mean Reverting – What Should You Trade?

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 8 April 2020

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Discussion on some of the reasons why Trend Following works, but why paradoxically, investors are lured toward mean-reversion.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

You mentioned also earlier on, you know, obviously a lot of people refer to, you know,

0:07.8

trending versus mean reverting.

0:09.8

You were referring to persistent and the back side of that is anti-persistent, of course.

0:18.0

And you said that this is something that you can kind of prove when you look at markets,

0:22.9

et cetera, et cetera. But if that's the case, and we believe that over time that, you know,

0:29.7

trend following as a strategy is more likely to succeed in the long run compared to mean reverting

0:35.7

or any other sort of an anti-persistent strategy.

0:39.2

Why do you think it is so difficult for investors to see that evidence? Because I think that there

0:46.1

is a tendency for people to prefer the mean reverting strategies. They feel better about it. They have

0:52.6

more winning months, perhaps, until, of course,

0:56.0

we know that, you know, from other firms that, you know, you get perhaps a blow, blow up at the

1:02.5

very end. So why can't we visualize this better to investors? Well, I think it all comes down to

1:08.4

Conneman and Tversky, behavioral economics.

1:12.2

I mean, there have been a lot of research done on the actual psychological responses, people in these kinds of situations.

1:19.8

So, you know, one thing I think about is what I do and what anybody who's sort of what a professional investor does is he is essentially

1:29.3

working against in his own psychology. He's working against those behaviors that are that are

1:37.2

typical and pretty much pervasive human behaviors. And to some extent, that's how we make money.

1:43.9

We make money by taking advantage of people

1:46.0

who are subject to those kinds of, shall we say, irrationalities. And that's why I was saying before,

1:53.2

you know, that's why it was so easy back in the 70s to make money as a systems traders, because

1:57.9

almost everybody that you were trading against was, you know,

2:03.5

was, you know, very much subject to the vagaries of fear and greed. And you were insulating

...

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