4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 24 March 2020
⏱️ 8 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Can you really figure out the markets by using ‘Big Data’ and ‘AI’?
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0:00.0 | It seems to me that I'm not alone when I sort of express some skepticism about big data, |
0:07.5 | which is sort of the opposite of what we do. |
0:09.9 | We take the price trends, the price, historical prices only, and follow the trends. |
0:17.2 | Maybe we look at volume or some other things, but it's pretty much going to be driven by the prices and the trends. |
0:22.6 | And it seems that people are, at least my followers, are very skeptical of big data, being able to come in and do better than trend. |
0:33.8 | So I got a lot of like from this tweet. |
0:40.3 | It was a quote from an article. |
0:42.5 | They have a mindset that we're going to conquer the world with big data. |
0:47.3 | In finance, though, the market regime is not static. |
0:51.5 | And markets aren't closed systems like a chess game. |
0:56.0 | You can have one little pin drop that can basically make you lose over 20 years of returns. Now, I don't know about that |
1:01.2 | last sentence, but it is nice to see that people are skeptical of, and understand and realize that it's really two different things. |
1:13.5 | The markets are very unique in what has worked maybe in other areas of life with big data and AI and machine learning may not work with the markets. |
1:25.1 | And of course, a week or two ago, we talked about one of my favorites was my own |
1:29.2 | brilliant tweet about maybe something like maybe the final step of a decision-making process |
1:37.8 | of AI would be wait for the breakout. I think I recommend, I recommend that highly for almost any, |
1:45.9 | anything less than what we do, pay attention only to prices. Regardless of how you make your |
1:50.3 | decisions, you may want to have that last step. Let's just wait for the breakout to confirm at all. |
1:57.7 | Yeah. Well, I think we saw that in a couple of interesting ways. Once we talked last |
2:04.3 | week, I think it was about the interview with Stanley Drucken Miller and how he was describing his |
2:08.8 | process and that was exactly what it was. You know, you build a thesis, you wait for the momentum and |
2:13.9 | once it's clear, you pile in. So certainly sounded trend following issue to me. The other |
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