BO34: More Fiction in Excel than in Word

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 12 March 2020

⏱️ 4 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The likeliness to curve fit data from backtests, and get excited about numbers which may not materialise.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Jerry, you found interesting in Twitterland?
0:04.7	I enjoyed kind of a funny tweet.
0:08.0	Retweeted this recently.
0:11.3	It was a favorite.
0:14.3	More fiction is written in Excel than in Microsoft Word.
0:19.7	And I think,
0:21.9	hopefully we're coming across as, you know,
0:25.5	just the biggest believers and lovers of back testing
0:28.6	and research and systems, you know, in the planet,
0:33.7	but we're also understanding the limitations
0:35.7	and how careful one must be when you and humble
0:41.7	with your numbers.
0:45.9	Many times I've left the research meetings over the past 35 years and been so excited and just
0:52.7	could not contain myself that we were going to make these dramatic
0:56.4	improvements in performance.
0:58.5	So then over time you sort of become more mature and understand that what you should expect
1:04.5	from as wonderful as the analysis, the Excel or the Trade Station or the MATLAB or whatever you've graduated to over the years,
1:14.6	it is, we do know that there is a lot of fiction in even our numbers.
1:19.8	And so we've been chastised appropriately over the years to have a more reasonable expectation.
1:27.4	I think that's a great, I mean, I think we could do a whole episode on that topic.
1:31.7	I think that's a very, very interesting topic.
1:34.5	And also something that somewhat frustrates me from time to time,
	...

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