4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 17 June 2020
⏱️ 3 minutes
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How much does luck play a part in short-term results?
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0:00.0 | So one of the themes that continues to be popular, of course, for my Twitter followers and for me, |
0:10.9 | and probably all of us, is ignoring, let's all just ignore short-term performance, please. |
0:17.7 | And what is short-term performance in its longer term than we would want it to be or imagine. |
0:24.7 | Of course, after a period of bad performance, I guess we do kind of appreciate that maybe even a |
0:32.9 | 10-year look back might not be enough to sort of call a strategy dead and not working any longer. |
0:39.9 | And the Wall Street Journal put out an article this week that sort of hit on that, that, quote, |
0:46.8 | statistical noise, luck, in other words, is always the first possibility to consider, especially |
0:53.1 | when a compelling model says the expected |
0:55.5 | premium is positive. Our tests don't rule out other explanations, but they do say bad luck |
1:01.7 | is a likely possibility. It kind of goes on to say even three, five, or ten years might not |
1:08.5 | be a long enough period to turn your back on a model that has worked |
1:14.2 | for a much longer period. So that's kind of nice and helpful. And we want this to be true. |
1:23.0 | Another tweet sort of goes with that was Cliff Asniss this week, an article about a previous study that they had done where he sort of says, I'm just hoping that the clients can hang in there. |
1:36.7 | And it is true that we need to be disciplined as traders and we need our clients to exercise and discipline and own enough of our funds, but not too much to |
1:47.0 | where it's going to tempt them to bail at the wrong time. |
1:52.0 | Yeah. No, I mean, it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's |
1:56.2 | I think we all face. Um and I think one of the things that is, I mean, we often |
2:05.2 | talk in our industry about the benefits of trend following, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And we can put up |
2:10.5 | all these studies of what happens when you mix a 6040 portfolio with 20% trend following, |
2:15.9 | et cetera, et cetera. I think that's been the pitch for a long time. |
2:19.0 | But one of the things that I do think people don't talk enough about is exactly what |
2:24.0 | you're pointing out, and that is time horizon. |
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