Bluffing with Nate Silver

Fail Better with David Duchovny

Grace Cohen-Chen

Society & Culture

4.6 • 534 Ratings

🗓️ 22 October 2024

⏱️ 52 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Nate Silver is a risk taker. On top of boldly and publicly forecasting elections as part of his website FiveThirtyEight, he’s a regular poker player, and in just one season of basketball, he bet nearly 2 million dollars on games. He still doesn’t have the foolproof winning formula figured out – even though that’s the ultimate forecaster’s promise – but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t bet on him, or along with him. I have no interest in Vegas, but I can still apply Nate’s life lessons about how to work hard, ask the right questions, and embrace failure as information. Follow me on Instagram at @davidduchovny. Stay up to date with Lemonada on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram at @LemonadaMedia. Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our show and get bonus content. Subscribe today at bit.ly/lemonadapremium. And if you want to continue the conversation with other listeners, join the My Lemonada community at https://lemonadamedia.com/mylemonada/ For a list of current sponsors and discount codes for this and every other Lemonada show, go to lemonadamedia.com/sponsors. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	It's morning in New York.
0:02.8	Oh, God.
0:06.2	Hey, everybody.
0:07.3	I'm Mandy Patinkin.
0:08.7	And I'm Catherine Grady.
0:09.8	And we have a new podcast.
0:11.7	It's called Don't Listen to Us.
0:14.1	Many of you've asked for our advice.
0:16.1	Tell me, what is wrong with you people?
0:19.2	Don't listen to us.
0:20.3	Our Take It or Leave a Device show every Wednesday out now.
0:24.7	A Lemonada Media Original.
0:36.2	I'm David DeKovny, and this is Fail Better, a show where failure, not success, shapes who we are.
0:42.9	Nate Silver is a statistician, a writer, and a poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections.
0:48.8	He's the founder of 538 and co-host of the podcast, Risky Business.
0:53.8	Much of Silver's approach can be characterized by using probabilistic, probabilistic and statistical
1:00.6	modeling to try to understand complex things.
1:02.8	I can't even say it, let alone understand it, probabilistic.
1:07.2	Basically, he's a math whiz, again, that's not me, who has a knack for predicting things correctly.
1:12.6	But of course, he doesn't get it right all the time.
1:14.6	For instance, he, like most people, predicted Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 presidential election.
1:19.6	But Nate's model also gave Trump the biggest chance of winning, I think, like 30%, which is part of what thrust him into the spotlight.
	...

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