Bits + Bips: Why a U.S. Recession May Be Coming — And Still Isn’t Priced In - Ep. 814

Unchained

Laura Shin

News, Tech News, Business News

4.5 • 1.3K Ratings

🗓️ 9 April 2025

⏱️ 74 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The markets are rattled. Tariffs are rising. Investors are pulling back. In this week’s Bits + Bips, the panel digs into what’s really driving the selloff, why the Fed may be stuck, and how Trump’s tariff logic could trigger deeper economic shocks than anyone expects. Plus: Whether Bitcoin becomes a safe haven What makes this downturn different from 2022 and 2020 Why a potential recession still isn’t priced in Whether Congress can take the tariff button away from Trump And yes, Ram coins a new term: FAFO tariffs 😀 Sponsors: Bitwise Hosts: James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter Links Tariffs: Recent coverage of Unchained on the economy and tariffs: Arthur Hayes on Why Tariffs Will Be Good for Bitcoin and Crypto Bits + Bips: Trump’s Tariffs Are Causing Mayhem, But Will They Revive U.S. Manufacturing? Trump Tariffs Sink Crypto, BlackRock Pumps Bitcoin’s Bags Why Trump-Induced Stagflation Could Finally Make Bitcoin a Safe Haven In Market Crash, What Should You Buy? Crypto VCs Are Making These Bets 10-year yield and the Fed CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield rises back above 4% despite tariff threat to growth Reuters: No Fed 'put' when it's unclear which way the economy may pivot 2008 Market Crash Federal Reserve: The Great Recession and Its Aftermath CNN: Bailout Plan Rejected - Supporters Scramble Can Congress Step In? Economist: How Donald Trump’s Tariffs Will Probably Fare in Court Politico: Trump Threatens Veto of Bill to Curb Tariff Power Timestamps: 👋 0:00 Intro 📉 3:30 Why this selloff feels nothing like 2022 or 2020 🪞 8:41 Why buying signals could be a mirage 🤔 11:28 Is the bear market already priced in? What investors are missing. 🏚️ 14:35 Could this turn into a fall “2008 scenario”? And what real buyers are doing now 🧮 25:57 Why Trump’s tariff math is wrong, and how it will create problems for the administration 📈 36:15 Why Trump wants the 10-year yield down, and why he’s failing 🛟 39:59 What counts as a safe haven right now, and is bitcoin one of them? 🏦 52:42 Can the Fed stand up to Trump’s pressure to cut rates? 🚫 57:56 Trump thinks that the trade deficit is a profit/loss statement. Why that’s a problem. ⚖️ 1:01:19 Can Congress pull Trump’s tariff authority? 💵 1:06:32 Can stablecoins save dollar demand? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey, everyone. Thank you for supporting Unchained, where we do our best to help you stay on top of Crypto News.
0:07.0	If you enjoy the show, we'd really appreciate it if you could take a moment right now to leave us a five-star review.
0:13.5	This helps other listeners discover Unchained.
0:16.5	And who knows, you may hear me read your review on an upcoming episode.
0:21.4	No, no, no. The word is nonsense. It's disrespectful nonsense. It's like, it's like they come
0:28.1	to you and saying, look, the sky has been read in the last hundred years. You're like,
0:36.4	oh, no.
0:38.4	Well, yes.
0:44.9	And if they repeated a million times, and then basically 50% of their supporters believe it,
0:47.2	the other 50 don't, and they believe it.
0:54.5	And how can you negotiate about the sky with your partner if your partner says, but it's blue. No, it's red.
0:55.7	We tear off the penguin.
0:56.8	It's a fundamental problem.
0:58.3	It's straight out of 1984. If the government says two plus two is five, then it's five.
1:04.0	Anybody got anything positive to say?
1:06.5	Hi everyone, open to bits and bips, exploring how crypto and macro collide, one basis point at a time.
1:14.6	I'm your host, James Safert, Tradfai Archmaister, and Lord of Bloomberg's End.
1:18.7	Here with Alex Kruger, Kruger, of House Asgard, Protector of the Round.
1:20.4	Hi, everyone.
1:25.6	Also with Noel Atchison, Hi, Sear and Keeper of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter.
1:27.5	Hello, everyone. And last but not least,
1:28.4	Rahm Al-Aliya,
	...

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